Important Line Moves and Free Picks for Jan. 4th

January 4, 2017

Let’s move ahead to Wednesday and we have five big line moves in the NBA and college basketball. There are actually a fewer bigger line moves in the NBA, but those are strictly injury or rest related. We also have all the current records in different areas for you to look through, with the direction of line moves and how accurate the public actually is in moving lines. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (67-54 since 12/01/16) when we post them, to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow!

NBA – (501) ATLANTA at (502) ORLANDO 7:05 ET  FSSE, FSFL

After being a rather mediocre offensive team most of the season, Orlando has been connecting more of late and has averaged 108.2 PPG in their last five outings, to raise their scoring average to a still rather paltry 99.4. With both the Magic and Atlanta middle of the road defenses in permitting just over 103 PPG, the total has climbed two points to 207. Here is why I don’t like this line movement, the Hawks are 13-3 UNDER in road games after covering the spread in two or more games and road teams revenging a home loss, off an upset win as a home underdog, with the total between 200 to 209.5, are 28-9 UNDER.

Betting Trend – 74% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under

NBA – (509) MEMPHIS at (510) L.A. CLIPPERS 10:35 ET FSSE, PRIME

www.vegasproinsidersdaily.com		Memphis coach David Fizdale was less than pleased in a loss to the Los Angeles Lakers last night. “We had our L.A. cool jacket on tonight,” Fizdale said. “I don’t know who we were performing for but it wasn’t for each other. We just have a way of having this other team creep in with us. We show signs of greatness and then we are just zombies out there and tonight was one of those nights.” With Chris Paul expected to be ‘doubtful’, the Clippers are lacking the manpower to win and are 1-6 and 2-5 ATS of late. Put this package together and those betting basketball have pushed Memphis from a Pick to -1.5. Not a great choice, but the Grizz appear to be right choice.

Betting Trend – 80% backing L.A. Clippers

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Memphis

CBB – (545) OKLAHOMA STATE at (546) TEXAS 8:00 ET  LHN

When it comes to Texas alumni, the words – Longhorns and patience – are never in the same sentence. Despite Texas not having any returning starters, there is grumbling about coach Shaka Smart with the Horns 6-7 (6-6 ATS). Oklahoma State is 10-3, but has a mixture of good and bad losses against better competition. The Cowboys were sent out as -1.5 point road faves, but Texas is now a one-point pick. With Okie State averaging nine 3-points and the Horns just six, expect this to be the determining factor.

Betting Trend – 55% backing Oklahoma State

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Oklahoma State

CBB – (553) OREGON at (554) WASHINGTON 9:00 ET ESPN2

With how Oregon has looked lately, college basketball bettors are flying with the Ducks who have gone from -8 to -10 at Washington. Oregon is as healthy as they have been all season and have reeled off 11 wins in a row (5-5-1 ATS). The Huskies are quite inconsistent and just lost at home to Washington State. What kind of defense Washington plays is likely deciding factor and the Huskers are 17-5 ATS after a two home games.

Betting Trend – 66% backing Oregon

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Washington

CBB – (567) IOWA STATE at (568) BAYLOR 8:00 ET  ESPN News

One of the big early surprises has been unbeaten Baylor at 13-0 (7-1 ATS). The Bears have not faced a rigorous slate, however, this team at least to this point has played with more of a bond than previous coach Scott Drew teams, who have tended to be selfish when adversity strikes. In truth, Baylor has not faced much adversity, yet the leadership on this team has better accountability. With this Iowa State has gone from +8 to +10 in Waco. The question about this encounter is can the Cyclones four-guard lineup make enough shots to offset massive difference in the paint with Baylor’s s 6-foot-10 Johnathan Motley and 7-footer Jo Lual-Acuil?

Betting Trend – 60% backing Baylor

Doug’s VPID Take - Lean Baylor

 

Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 44-38 (since 12/01/16)

Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 22-17 (since 12/01/16)

Line Movement Direction Record – 66-55 (since 12/01/16)

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