Once again we have all the latest NFL line moves and updates from earlier in the week. Games in Baltimore and Kansas City also had moving total, but weather is the driving force behind those. In addition we have new action to talk about on the gridiron for Monday. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (417-327 of late and now on 25-7 run) when we post them, to see what we are thinking. See you back here Tuesday.
NFL – (307) DETROIT at (308) N.Y. GIANTS 1:00 ET FOX
With the Giants defense coming off awesome performance and permitting just 18.8 PPG and Detroit coming up big on defense all season in conceding 20.6 PPG, the total has tumbled from 44 to 41 points. The New York offense is part of the lower total, coming in a paltry 19.6 PPG. There are concerns also about Matthew Stafford having to wear glove with bad finger on throwing hand, which likely will affect accuracy and velocity. Both teams have strong UNDER tendencies. Update – As of Saturday, 40.5 and 40 have started popping up at wagering outlets for this contest.
Betting Trend – 65% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
NFL – (311) GREEN BAY at (312) CHICAGO 1:00 ET FOX ESPN (side and total)
With Green Bay 20-5 SU and 19-6 ATS at Soldier Field in the last 23 years (includes playoffs) and having the better team again this year, the Packers shot up from -5 to -6.5. Also, with both these bitter rivals playing better defense in recent games, the total has slipped from 44. to 42.5. Green Bay would appear to be the play on 3-0 SU and ATS run, but Chicago is playing their best football and is on 4-0 ATS move presently. Update – Though the betting trend on the Packers has not changed much, they are down -5.5. With temps expected in the single digits, the total has crumbled to 38.
Betting Trend – 81% backing Green Bay and 88% on Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Green Bay and slight lean Under
NFL – (313) INDIANAPOLIS at (314) MINNESOTA 1:00 ET CBS *New Side*
In this nonconfernce clash, the total has gone up from 44 to 45.5. This is really thought provoking because the Colts average 54.6 total points on the road and Minnesota is at 39.9 PPG in the land of 10,000 lakes that are freezing up. Are bettors saying Indianapolis will dictate the tempo or do they feel the Colts defense is so beatable even the Vikings will put up some points? Minnesota is 15-4 UNDER when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points the last two seasons. Update – The total has held steady, but with the news Adrian Peterson has declared himself ready to play, Minnesota went from -4 to -5.
Betting Trend – 60% backing Over and 64% on Minnesota
Doug’s VPID Take – Plays on the Over and Minnesota
NFL – (315) CLEVELAND at (316) BUFFALO 1:00 ET CBS
In terms of great quarterback play, there is a very good chance this game film will not end up in the Hall of Fame with Robert Griffin lll (remember RG3) going against Tyrod Taylor. Those betting football agree and the total has collapsed three points to 41. One aspect to consider is Cleveland on occasion can run the ball pretty well and Buffalo’s run defense has been porous of late and the Browns defense is just plain rotten. No easy call here. Update – Just a modest buyback to 41.5 on this AFC affair.
Betting Trend – 88% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
NFL – (319) JACKSONVILLE at (320) HOUSTON 1:00 ET CBS
Houston took major step towards winning second straight AFC South crown with win at Indianapolis and has to win next two home games before trip to Tennessee. Football bettors are forecasting lower score and dumped the total from 41 to 38.5. This makes perfect sense, the only issue is Jacksonville turnovers that can be quickly converted to points. The Jags are 10-2 OVER after playing at home. Update – A definite uptick in the total, now back to 39.5. Not sure it will going much higher based on betting trend.
Betting Trend – 56% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
NFL – (327) OAKLAND at (328) SAN DIEGO 4:25 ET CBS
The total is dipping in the AFC West showdown. After opening at 51, the new number is 49.5. At least by the numbers this holds up and here is why. Since 2007, only twice has what was the first game’s result was not been the opposite in the second contest. (Oddly, in 2008, both outcomes on the total were a Push.) With early contest an easy OVER, going with history could pan out. Update – We have some movement on the total, with roughly half the books now at 49.
Betting Trend – 64% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take - Lean Under
NFL – Monday – (331) CAROLINA at (332) WASHINGTON 8:30 ET ESPN *New*
Either there is very little faith in Carolina and its pass defense or the thought process is Washington is the play as they have been moved up two points to -6.5. In theory we support were the line is headed, however, one major point that cannot be overlooked, the Redskins are 1-13 ATS at home on Monday night. (Gulp)
Betting Trend – 52% backing Washington
Doug’s VPID Take - Lean Washington
BOWLS – Miami Beach, Monday - (213) CENTRAL MICHIGAN at (214) TULSA 2:30 ET ESPN *New*
With Tulsa’s high-powered offense and Central Michigan strong passing game, the total in the Miami Bowl is up two points to 69.5. Tulsa was 8-4 OVER this year and is 14-4 OVER in the second half of the season since 2014. With the Chippewas allowing 33 PPG away from home and Tulsa at 36.5 PPG in the same circumstance, there should plenty of points.
Betting Trend – 81% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
Top 3 Public ATS Bet Percentages (Highest First) (22-20 record) – Ravens, Packers and Patriots
Top 3 Public Totals Bet Percentages (Highest First) (26-16 record) – Browns/Bills UNDER, Packers/Bears UNDER and Titans/Chiefs Under
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 296-289-3
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 186-155-2
Line Movement Direction Record – 512-466-5