Important Line Moves and Free Picks for Dec. 16-17

December 16, 2016

Opening weekend of bowl games and some very important college basketball contests and we look at all the line moves for all of the them. Plus, NBA action on Friday and the NFL on Saturday night.  Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (416-327 of late and now on 24-7 run) when we post them, to see what we are thinking. See you back here Sunday for NFL.

NBA – (503) DETROIT at (504) WASHINGTON 7:05 ET FS-D, CSN-MA

This contest was sent out as a Pick, but Detroit was pushed up to a -2 at Washington. After a very slow start, the Wizards have won four of six and are playing a more physical style with everyone healthy. The Pistons have alternated wins and losses in their last seven contests and might be getting the nod as Washington has allowed four of last five opponents shot over 50 percent. Grabbing the points, with the Wizards having won four straight at home over Detroit.

Betting Trend – 81% backing Detroit

Doug’s VPID Take - Washington covers

NFL - (303) MIAMI at (304) N.Y. JETS 8:25 ET  NFLN

The quarterback matchup of Matt Moore and Bryce Drew is drawing attention. It is not very positive either, with the total down from 41 to 38 points. It is very easy to agree with this line of thinking and we do, the only problem now is all the value has been taken away from supporting a lower score, even if the Dolphins are 14-4 UNDER in road games off three or more consecutive Over’s. UpdateIt is about an even split on the total at 37.5 or 38 at sportsbooks checked and unless both quarterbacks makes a mess of mistakes, the lower score is the play.

Betting Trend – 57% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under

BOWLS – New Mexico(201) UTSA at (202) NEW MEXICO 2:00 ET  ESP

www.vegasproinsidersdaily.comIn the bowl opener, those betting football have sent the total downward from 64 to 62. Though the make-ups of each team is different from the two meetings they had in 2013 and 2014, both contests were UNDER’s by more than 20 points. New Mexico is likely to score and is 10-2 OVER this season, but will the UTSA be able to keep pace? UpdateWith windy conditions expected along with falling temperatures, this total is down to 58. New Mexico is less likely to be effected running the option.

Betting Trend – 72% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Slight Lean Under

BOWLS –  Las Vegas(203) HOUSTON vs. (204) SAN DIEGO STATE 3:30 ET ABC

With average score of Houston game approximately 60 points and San Diego State’s at 56, the total drifting from 58 to 54.5 would seem to favor the Aztecs. Yet, when breaking the teams down, San Diego State might be 10th nationally in rushing, which is their main strength, the Cougars are 3rd in the country stopping the run. Does this all lead to a defensive struggle or will Houston offense generate big plays? UpdateWith cold front having come through, game time temperature is supposed to be in low 40′s and occasionally gusty winds and the total is all the way down to 51. Preferred lower score, but this is another very low number.

Betting Trend – 80% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Slight lean Under

BOWLS –  Camellia(209) APPAL. STATE vs. (210) TOLEDO 5:30 ET ESPN

After two opening bowl totals going down, we have one on the rise. The Camellia Bowl total is up 56 to 57.5. Though Appalachian State only allowed 200 yards passing per game, the SBC had few quality quarterbacks. Against Akron and Miami-Fl, the Mountaineers allowed over 350 YPG passing and Toledo is 9th in passing yards. This is why higher score makes sense. UpdateThis total has not found highest point yet, with most books at 60 and few are now showing 60.5. Betting trend is massive!

Betting Trend – 97% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over

BOWLS –  New Orleans – (211) SOUTHERN MISS vs. (212) UL-LAFAYETTE 9:00 ET ESPN (side and total)

In this Deep South showdown, the money is on Southern Miss, up from -2 to -4, who is coming from a stronger conference and has more overall team speed. Again, based on line move, the Golden Eagles have the better offense and at least by the numbers a weaker defense and the total has climbed from 57 to 58.5. When these teams had a closing total in the 50′s this season, they are a combined 7-2 UNDER. UpdateBettors cannot get enough of Southern Miss who is all the way up to -6. The total is unchanged from earlier this week and is being lightly wagered on compared to the other four bowls on Saturday, nonetheless, all one-way action.

Betting Trend – 88% backing Southern Miss and 97% on Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Southern Miss covers and Play Over

CBB – Saturday - (779) PURDUE vs. (780) NOTRE DAME 2:30 ET  ESPN2

Notre Dame had No. 1 Villanova on the ropes last Saturday, but could not knock them out, as Josh Hart carved them up in the second half and totaled 37 points. Purdue is a strong, nicely balanced club, but the Fighting Irish can score from anywhere at every position and makes their free throws, which gives them the edge.

Anticipated Line – Purdue by 4 to 6 points

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Notre Dame (at these numbers)

CBB – Saturday - (781) BUTLER vs. (782) INDIANA 5:00 ET  BTN

In Indianapolis, right after the above matchup, this is the other Hoosier State battle. When focused, both can shot the rock from deep (Dick Vitale reference). Indiana has a little more quickness and size than Butler and that shows up in final 10 minutes.

Anticipated Line – Indiana 3 to 5 points

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Indiana

CBB – Saturday  - (785) NORTH CAROLINA vs. (786) KENTUCKY  5:45 ET  CBS

This could very well be the best game college basketball game before conference play commences. As we saw in UCLA game, Kentucky is not completely assembled defensively in the paint and this is where North Carolina can and ultimately will have success.

Anticipated Line – North Carolina by 3 to 5 points

Doug’s VPID Take - Lean North Carolina

 

Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 296-289-3

Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 186-154-2

Line Movement Direction Record – 512-465-5

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