Important Line Moves and Free Picks for August 3

August 3, 2016

It was a wild night in baseball last evening, with huge favorites beaten badly and bullpens blowing not only saves but games. Tonight’s line moves have five significant numbers changes over four contests. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (166-131, 55.8% of late, including 16-7 run) to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.

MLB – (905) SAN FRANCISCO at (906) PHILADELPHIA 7:05 ET  CSN-BA, CSP

San Francisco’s second half slump continues, with last night’s stunning setback to Philadelphia. The Phillies 29th-ranked offense not only scored 13 runs, they chased Madison Bumgarner after just five innings. The Giants are now 4-12 (-14.85 units) since the All-Star break and have tumbled 30 cents to -170 with Johnny Cueto (13-3, 2.63 ERA) throwing tonight. Normally do not focus on such still large favorites, yet the way San Fran is going, it is hard not to notice, plus, Cueto is 1-5 with 5.17 ERA against Philly. Not saying Frisco does not win, but hardly a sure thing.

Betting Trend – 77% backing San Francisco

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean San Francisco

MLB – (921) KANSAS CITY at (922) TAMPA BAY  7:10 ET  FSKC, SUN (side and total)

Tampa Bay’s offense continues to be among the worst in baseball and though they are tied with Kansas City at 3.9 runs a game, they have lost first two matchups in series, scoring twice and permitting only six runs. Those betting baseball are giving the Rays a shot today, up from -130 to -145, trusting Jake Odorizzi (5-5, 3.88) or possibly not the Royals Edinson Volquez (8-9, 4.70). Based on road/home records, hard to favor either squad, with K.C. 19-36 away and Rays 22-32 in Clearwater. Lean with Odorizzi and Tampa with recent 0.70 ERA over three starts and Volquez with 6.10 road ERA. With the lack of offense, total sunk from 7.5 to 7 and hard to disapprove with Rays 15-4 UNDER in home games when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

Betting Trend – 89% backing Tampa Bay and 60% on Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Tampa Bay and Under

MLB – (925) OAKLAND at (926) L.A.A. ANGELS  10:05 ET  CSN-CA, FSW

There was a time not that long ago Jered Weaver (8-8, 5.14) pitching at the Big A meant a minimum -170 money line on the Angels. Not anymore, as both Weaver and the Halos are in decline and even tonight’s opening -130 against Oakland has crumbled to -110. Undoubtedly, the A’s having won eight of Kendall Graveman’s (7-7, 4-15) last nine starts fits into the equation. From a trend perspective, Weaver is a great bet at sportsbooks, but that was when his fastball still broke 90 MPH. Still a nod to Anaheim with Oakland 1-11 versus teams whose hitters strike out six or less times a game over the last two seasons.

Betting Trend – 58% backing L.A.A.

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean L.A.A.

MLB – (929) N.Y. METS at (930) N.Y. YANKEES  7:05 ET  ESPN

In the cement jungle, the scene shifts from Citi Field to Yankee Stadium for Game 3 of the series. The total is down to 8 from opening 8.5 for those generating baseball picks, in spite of information to the contrary. The Mets Steven Matz (8-7, 3.35) has seen his ERA steadily climb from 2.39 since June 7th. The Yankees Chad Green (1-2, 4.56) has a 7.56 ERA in three spot starts dating back to May 16th. While the club from the Bronx has played 11 straight UNDER contests at home, both teams are 4-0 OVER’s runs and with total at 8 and two starting hurlers who could be compromised, I will side with larger score.

Betting Trend – 86% backing OVER

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over

 

Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 140-136-1

Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 124-105-1

Line Movement Direction Record – 264-242-2

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