Impactful Line Moves and Free Picks for Mar. 7th

March 7, 2017

For line moves today, it might as well be called – All Totals Tuesday, because that is exactly what it is. We have three college tournament tilts and one in the NBA to peruse. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks , to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.


Since scoring 88 points at Utah, Portland’s offense has been blazing in scoring 115 PPG, while continuing to ignore the defensive side of the ball and allowing 112 PPG in the same time span. For Oklahoma City, after they held the Lakers to 93 points, they have been allergic to guarding the opposing team and conceded 110.4 PPG in their past five outings. This would seem to be a perfect storm of point permitted, but those betting basketball think the oddsmakers went too far in opening number of 223.5 and dumped the total two points to 221.5. I’m apt to agree as the Thunder are 13-4 UNDER versus teams making 36% or more of three-point attempts this season.

Betting Trend – 52% backing Under

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Under


With both these ACC squads allowing over 80 PPG away from home this season, sportsbooks sent out a total of 161.5. The betting public wanted nothing to do with that number and lowered the total to 157.5. The teams were 1-1 on the total during the regular season and the actual outcome appears wholly dependent on Boston College. Wake Forest seems like a lock to secure 80 points, but how will the Eagles do? B.C. is 8-2 OVER versus teams scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games this season.

Betting Trend – 63% backing Over

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Over


The Pittsburgh offense has gone colder than snow fed creek. The Panthers have lost four in a row and averaged a chilly 55 PPG and failed to connect on 40 percent of shot attempts. Fire trucks have not been summoned for Georgia Tech’s offense either, which is at 64 PPG in last seven tries. Despite the lack of baskets, this ACC first round total has spiked from 129 to 133, with someone convinced points will be more plentiful. Maybe this becomes a higher scoring affair, but neutral court teams like the Yellow Jackets when the total is between 130 and 139.5 points, after allowing 90 points or more, against opponent after scoring 65 points or less in two straight games, are 50-17 UNDER.

Betting Trend – 56% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under

CBB – (723) SOUTH DAKOTA ST. vs. (724) NEBRASKA-O  9:00 ET  ESPN2		Two piping hot clubs collide for Summit Conference title and a berth NCAA field of 68. Both are playing their best basketball of the season and are offensive-minded and oddsmakers sent this total out at 167, after both meetings this year easily surpassed that number. Those wagering on hoops have disagreed and the total has tumbled four digits to 163. Not seeing this line movement and all over the adjusted figure.

Betting Trend – 66% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over


Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 53-58 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 25-35-1 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 77-91-1 ATS

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