Let’s start the week by diving into the biggest line moves for the day! Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (17-6 of late), to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
NBA - (509) SAN ANTONIO at (510) INDIANA 7:05 ET FSSW, FSIN
The San Antonio offense has been uncharacteristically up and down of late, shooting over 50 percent three times and under 37 percent twice in last five outings. Since winning seven straight, Indiana has gone in the tank with three straight losses, with the defense a complete failure in permitting 120 PPG. Despite what seems at best a neutral situation, the total has slipped from 207 to 205. Granted, these teams are on a 4-1 UNDER move, but the Pacers play at a different pace under coach Nate McMillan and I see the Spurs offense coming around this evening.
Betting Trend – 68% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
NBA - (517) GOLDEN STATE at (518) DENVER 9:05 ET CSN-BA, ALT.
Here is a number you do not see every often from sportsbooks – 240.5. That is correct, for this Western Conference clash the starting total of 238 did not hold up and it has been hoisted to 240.5. It is hard not to think it possible, as the Jan. 2 encounter ended up at 246. Denver is 37-16-1 OVER for the season and their average home game ends up 224.8 total points. Nonetheless, this crazy-talk territory and while we agree it is possible, Golden State is 19-9 UNDER as a road favorite and 8-0 UNDER when handing out 9.5 to 12 points away from home.
Betting Trend – 77% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
CBB – (529) GEOR. SOUTHERN at (530) APP. STATE 7:00 ET W-ESPN (side and total)
Two elements in play for this Sun Belt showdown. The first involves Appalachian State switched from a one-point underdog to a one-point home favorite against Georgia Southern. The other is a rising total which began at 151.5 and is up two digits to 153.5. The higher score has validity as these two clubs are 8-1 OVER in Boone, NC. Not as sold on the Mountaineers, who won for the first time since Jan. 9th on Saturday and they are 2-10 and 4-7-1 ATS (all as underdogs) in conference action.
Betting Trend – 77% backing Georgia Southern and 90% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Georgia Southern covers and lean Under
CBB – (539) WEST VIRGINIA at (540) KANSAS 9:00 ET ESPN
The total in this important Big 12 battle has seen the total drop like Grammy winners Twenty One Pilots did with their pants at the awards. The starting figure of 158 has been cut to 155. West Virginia’s defense has held last five opponents to 69.4 PPG and while Kansas does not figure to be at that low a number, one has to wonder how point guard Frank Mason III will hold up, appearing utterly exhausted after last two games and faces Press Virginia with only one day off. With the Mountaineers 14-5 UNDER versus teams making eight or more 3-point shots a game on the season, I’m inclined to agree where total is headed.
Betting Trend – 72% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 36-34 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 16-21-1 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 49-54-1 ATS