Hump Day Line Moves and Free Picks for April 5th

April 5, 2017

It is the middle of the work week and we have a whopping SIC line moves to talk about today, three in the NBA and three in baseball. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (51-29 of late), to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.

NBA - (501) MIAMI at (502) CHARLOTTE  7:05 ET  SUN, FSS

www.vegasproinsidersdaily.com		The total on this division tilt has steadily been falling since opening release, now down three points to 204. Best guess is basketball bettors are following the trend of these clubs playing lower scoring games in Charlotte, with the UNDER sitting at 8-0 of late and 23-6 UNDER since 2005. In theory, that makes perfect sense, but I’m going the other way and here is why. The Hornets have stung opposing teams for 112.2 PPG in their last eight outings while allowing 109 PPG. Defensively, they are conceding almost 50 percent made shot attempts and I am hard pressed to think that just stops tonight.

Betting Trend – 69% backing Over

Doug’s VPID TakePlay Over

NBA – (513) GOLDEN STATE at (514) PHOENIX  10:05 ET  CSBA, FSAZ (side and total)

Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala will  not play tonight and despite this, Golden State is up two points to -9.5. What gives, Phoenix has decided to let all their rookies and young players take over most of the minutes and with this the losing streak now stands at a dozen (4-8 ATS). Often in the past this is where the Warriors play sloppy and maybe even lose, but coach Steve Kerr’s crew is in such a good groove, they are almost unstoppable. The Suns youngsters going up against the stars from Golden State seems like a mismatch and is, which is why the total has climbed from 219 to 222.5. Phoenix is 8-1 OVER at home after three or more consecutive losses this season.

Betting Trend – 98% backing Over and 87% on Golden State

Doug’s VPID TakePlay Over and Lean Golden State

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MLB – (953) MIAMI at (954) WASHINGTON  8:10 ET  FSFL, MASN (side and total)

Tanner Roark has become one Washington’s better starting pitchers and is why sportsbooks sent them out as -180 home favorites over Miami. So why would the Nationals have slipped to -155? Baseball bettors who like dogs look at the Marlins Daniel Straily and discovered the teams he played for last year were 10-3 when listed as a -150 or less underdog. Straily watchers are also aware that he was 12-2 OVER when the total was either 8 or 8.5 and guess what the total did? Yep, rose from 8 to 8.5. At new price, Washington is more attractive and I agree we might see a 6-3 final score.

Betting Trend – 98% backing Washington and 77% on Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Washington wins and Over

MLB – (967) N.Y. YANKEES at (968) TAMPA BAY  7:10 ET  FS1

If C.C. Sabathia and the New York bullpen can shutdown Tampa Bay offense, why can’t Michael Pineda and teammates do the same thing? That is what those betting baseball are thinking and took the Yankees from -105 to -140. However, Pineda enters the season on a 10-start winless streak. Alex Cobb has a fine 2.91 ERA against the Yanks, but struggled mightily upon returning last year after 2015 Tommy John surgery. Honestly, if you like New York, I would wait to see if number comes down or if you like the Rays, snatch them up now. I will give a slight nod to Tampa Bay based on perceived value and thinking OVER 7.5 is the better bet.

Betting Trend – 59% backing New York

Doug’s VPID Take – Slight lean Tampa Bay (Play Over)

 

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 77-93-3 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 36-41-1 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 117-130-4 ATS

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