Here is hoping everyone one of you has a wonderful and very Merry Christmas. For this weekend, we have an absolute sleigh full of line moves. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (428-342 of late and now on 36-22 run) when we post them, to see what we are thinking. See you back here Tuesday.
NFL – (103) WASHINGTON at (104) CHICAGO 1:00 ET FOX *New*
With Washington having blown great opportunity on Monday night, they have to win finals two games and hope the breaks for their way to return to playoffs. Green Bay chopped up the Chicago defense last week and bettors are counting on Kirk Cousins to rebound and do the same, shifting the total from 45.5 to 47. Winning teams like Washington that have lost three of their last four games, playing a losing team in the second half of the season, are 31-9 Over.
Betting Trend – 75% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take - Play Over
NFL – (105) MIAMI at (106) BUFFALO 1:00 ET CBS
Despite three straight OVER’s in this series and the two combatants a combined 21-7 OVER this season, the total has crumbled from 44 to 42. We don’t know the expected weather at this time but we do know Buffalo has scored and not played great defense at home and is 7-0 OVER in upstate New York. Not a Matt Moore fan but cannot ignore the numbers. Update – A couple public sportsbooks on the Vegas strip went to 42.5, otherwise, all quiet in spite of betting trend.
Betting Trend – 84% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
NFL – (109) ATLANTA at (110) CAROLINA 1:00 ET FOX *New*Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
On Wednesday afternoon money started coming in on Atlanta and they went from -1.5 to -3 road favorites against Carolina. We understand why those making NFL picks would feel that way, but the Panthers have great December record with Cam Newton and favorites scoring 27 or more PPG, against a defensive permitting 23-27 PPG, after allowing 14 points or less in two straight outings, are 6-28 ATS.
Betting Trend – 80% backing Atlanta
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Carolina
NFL – (113) N.Y. JETS at (114) NEW ENGLAND 1:00 ET CBS
New England is 12-2 and 11-3 ATS and given the kind of year the Jets have had, the Patriots going from -14 to -16.5 should not come as a surprise. Before plunking down money on New England at least consider they are 1-7-1 ATS in recent contests with New York and are 0-6 ATS as division favorites of 12 or more. Update – New England is all the way up to -17 against their division rivals despite the relatively low number of bets placed on them.
Betting Trend – 56% backing New England
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean New York
NFL – (115) TENNESSEE at (116) JACKSONVILLE 1:00 ET CBS
Tennessee is fighting to win division title, while it is another lost season for Jacksonville with another new coaching regime coming in. With this combo pack, the Titans have been pushed from -3.5 to -5 and given Blake Bortles penchant for mistakes, hard to find fault. However, Tennessee is still 0-6 ATS off an upset win, so think it through. Update – As the week progressed, the Titans were teetering back and forth on -4.5 or -5, before settling on the latter figure.
Betting Trend – 94% backing Tennessee
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Jacksonville
NFL – (117) SAN DIEGO at (118) CLEVELAND 1:00 ET CBS
Early reports have the revolving door at quarterback position continuing in Cleveland, who is so desperate for one win they would probably give away all draft picks for a couple years for Tom Brady. With this the total has been sent from 45.5 to 44. With San Diego on a 4-0 UNDER move and the Browns at 4-1 UNDER, this alteration has our vote. Update – Fairly wide split at books, anywhere from 43 to 44.
Betting Trend – 63% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
NFL – (123) ARIZONA at (124) SEATTLE 4:25 ET FOX
Seattle has won the NFC West and is intent on wrapping up No.2 seed in the conference and faces Arizona. The Cardinals are closing out a massively disappointing season and are not drawing much support in being pushed from +7 to +8.5. Maybe Arizona comes to play one last game, yet have 1-5 SU and ATS road record and that offensive line makes them hard to support. Update – Will be watching to see where this side lands, as we found Seattle anywhere from -7.5 all the way to -9. No rhyme or reason based on betting outlet either, made more strange by betting trend.
Betting Trend – 51% backing Arizona
Doug’s VPID Take - Lean Seattle
NFL – (125) CINCINNATI at (126) HOUSTON 8:25 ET NFLX *New*
Houston opened as a -3 point favorite, was pushed to a Pick before climbing back to -1, with questions about if QB Tom Savage can play another fine game and receiver A.J. Green reportedly ready for action for Cincinnati. (Reports now emerging Green might not be ready) Though the Bengals might have more overall talent, the Texans are 6-1 SU at home, while the Bengals have scuffled on the road at 2-5 and 1-6 ATS. Also keep in mind Houston is 7-1 ATS versus Cincy.
Betting Trend – 53% backing Houston
Doug’s VPID Take – Houston covers
NFL – Sunday - (127) BALTIMORE at (128) PITTSBURGH 4:30 ET NFLN
Pittsburgh is being given the benefit of the doubt and moved from -4 to -5 on this Christmas day clash. The line history might suggest otherwise with numerous field goal or less spreads, still, hard to not think about the Steelers defense is playing as well as Baltimore’s presently and Ben Roethlisberger is playing at home. Update – The Steelers are still on the rise at the sportbooks, with -5.5 and -6 now commonly found.
Betting Trend – 58% backing Pittsburgh
Doug’s VPID Take - Pittsburgh covers
NFL – Sunday – (129) DENVER at (190) KANSAS CITY 8:30 ET NBC *New*
Trouble in the Broncos locker room last Sunday with the offense and defense. That is understandable given the Denver offense has averaged 11 points per game in their last three outings and the Broncos are in serious danger of not defending Super Bowl title. Nonetheless, Kansas City is hardly an offensive juggernaut and Alex Smith continues to turn the ball over in the red zone and the Chiefs have been moved from -4.5 to -3. Keep in mind the visitor on a 6-0 ATS run with five wins. If you like Denver, wait, sources suggest K.C. money coming.
Betting Trend – 56% backing Kansas City
Doug’s VPID Take – Denver covers
BOWLS – Quick Lane – (231) MARYLAND vs. (232) BOSTON COLLEGE 2:30 ET ESPN
With two mediocre offenses, this total has dipped from 45 to 43.5. Both teams were 8-4 UNDER this season and all the other peripherals suggest fewer points. Nevertheless, look for both coaches to make this a reward game, open up the playbook and have some fun and the teams punching through barrier. Update – No change in the total, but we will go contrarian here.
Betting Trend – 68% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
BOWLS – Independence - (233) VANDERBILT vs. (234) N.C. STATE 5:00 ET ESPN2
This bowl contest has a rising total in spite of two offense that are not exciting and two pretty solid defenses that can do a good job at the line of scrimmage. The totals adjustment has been from 42.5 to 44 and given how both offenses closed the season in showing more explosiveness, we will ignore Vanderbilt being a 14-4 UNDER team as an underdog. Update – Another bowl total without movement, but each could change when Monday rolls around.
Betting Trend – 86% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
NFL – Monday – (131) DETROIT at (132) DALLAS 8:30 ET ESPN
The final Monday night game of the season has two NFC division leaders doing battle with a shifting total. This oddsmakers release of 41.5 has been altered to 44. While a convincing case could be made for this, Detroit is 8-0 UNDER in road games when the total is between 42.5 and 45 points and Dallas is 12-3 UNDER after one or more consecutive ATS setbacks. Update – About 25 percent betting places have moved the total to 44.5, with the rest remaining the same.
Betting Trend – 69% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take - Lean Under
Top 3 Public ATS Bet Percentages (Highest First) (23-22 record) – Titans, Lions and Chargers
Top 3 Public Totals Bet Percentages (Highest First) (27-18 record) – Dolphins/Bills OVER, Titans/Jaguars OVER and Redskins/Bears Over
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 301-295-3
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 187-163-2
Line Movement Direction Record – 522-479-5