Happy New Year and welcome to 2017 Line Moves. We have five football games ahead and we have the complete line moves breakdown on each. We also have all the current records in different areas for you to look through, with the direction of line moves and how accurate the public actually are. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (67-54 since 12/01/16) when we post them, to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow!
NFL – Saturday - (101) OAKLAND at (102) HOUSTON 4:35 ET ESPN
It comes without any surprise the total on the first playoff encounter has sunk from 37.5 to 36.5, given the quarterback situations for both teams. In either case, one would surmise both head coaches will live or die with a war in the trenches, looking to run the ball and picks spots to throw, hoping nothing bad results when passing, like turnovers. Cannot imagine in either case when the starting quarterbacks are actually announced this would cause the total to rise and if anything only see it going lower.
Houston opened at -3 and was modestly bumped to -3.5, with many wondering how Oakland moves the ball at all if they cannot run the pigskin. Early bets placed favored the Texans and the Under.
Betting Trend – 62% backing Under
NFL – Saturday – (103) DETROIT at (104) SEATTLE 8:15 ET NBC
Both NFL teams come in playing far from their best football. Detroit after looking like a lock to win the NFC North for the first time in 23 years, closed 0-3 and 0-4 ATS. Seattle could not hold on to the No.2 slot in the NFC with a 2-2 and 1-3 ATS finish. Though around 70 percent of bets placed have been on the Lions, the Seahawks have gone from -7 to -8 at home.
Though Seattle is a noteworthy home team for years, there 4-3-1 ATS record is similar to last year’s at 4-4 against the spread, which might suggest Pete Carroll’s club is no longer has a true juggernaut in the Northwest. Though the Lions are laboring, defensively they could keep the score down and the Seahawks defense is not the same without safety Earl Thomas.
The total has not changed from 42.5.
Betting Trend – 68% backing Detroit
NFL – (105) MIAMI at (106) PITTSBURGH 1:05 ET CBS
Pittsburgh was sent out by sportsbooks at -10 and briefly went to -9.5, before settling in at -10 again. This figures to be the biggest spread of the Wild Card round. The initial numbers find almost 70 percent of bets placed are on Miami, suggesting mostly ‘public’ money, which the oddsmakers are not impressed with. Unless a large influx of Steelers money were to come in, it is hard to believe the books would go to -10.5 or higher on Pittsburgh, because they would likely see a great deal of Miami money on what would be a key number in this situation.
The total opened at 47.5 and almost immediately was down to 47, in spite of nearly 80 wagered on the Over. Expect that betting ratio to come down.
Betting Trend – Nothing really of note yet.
NFL – (107) N.Y. GIANTS at (108) GREEN BAY 4:40 ET FOX
Late Sunday night, Green Bay was a -4 point favorite over New York and for a few hours dipped to -3.5, before climbing to -4.5 at all but a few offshore books known for attracting sharper action, who remained at -4. The wagering public numbers are also shading the Packers.
Backing the Pack comes with risks even with a white-hot Aaron Rodgers playing at Lambeau Field. The Giants are the superior defensive team and have the secondary that can curtail what Green Bay likes to do, especially if they can stop the run. New York is real mediocre on offense, yet two or three passes to Odell Beckham Jr. could change the game. The G-Men are 11-2 ATS as a wild card team in the playoffs.
The total was sent out at 44.5 and became split at that number and 44, despite 80 percent of bets places on the Over.
Betting Trend – 60% backing Green Bay
CFB – Monday (151) CLEMSON vs. (152) ALABAMA 8:00 ET ESPN
After Clemson shutout Ohio State, a couple media outlets reported Alabama was touchdown favorite. While a few sportsbooks might have released that number, once the consensus line was released, the Crimson Tide were at -6 and have ended up at -6.5.
While nobody can deal with distractions better than Nick Saban, the Lane Kiffin for Steve Sarkisian switch at offensive coordinator is a red flag. It might be a seamless transition, but bettors have to contemplate how this could impact Alabama, especially if the Clemson defense stuffs the run in the first half.
The total dropping from 54 to 51.5 or 51 is a reflection of both squads defenses. We are not expecting anything like last year’s high scoring affair and teams like Alabama after allowing 17 points or less in three straight games, against opponent after a win by 21 or more points, are 45-16 UNDER since 2012.
Betting Trend – 84% backing Under
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 44-38 (since 12/01/16)
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 22-17 (since 12/01/16)
Line Movement Direction Record – 66-55 (since 12/01/16)