For line moves we continue to track the NFL and the next wave of bowl games. In the NFL for Week 17, we will pass on big early line moves on the N.Y. Giants, Pittsburgh and Miami because all are expected to rest players for postseason contests and we will review them later. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (440-347 of late and now on 48-27 run) when we post them, to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
BOWLS – Pinstripe – (243) NORTHWESTERN vs. (244) PITTSBURGH 2:00 ET ESPN
With Pittsburgh 11-1 OVER this season, rather stunning to see the total in this bowl game fall from 68 to 64.5 . Granted, Northwestern was 8-4 UNDER this season and some might expect them to control the pace. However, three of the Wildcats OVER’s came on the road with better offensive and that is quite likely to continue versus Panthers 127th rated pass defense.
Betting Trend – 69% backing Over
BOWLS – Foster Farms - (247) INDIANA vs. (248) UTAH 8:30 ET FOX
In spite of all the turmoil in the Indiana football program, either football bettors believe the transition will be smoother than what many outsiders actually think or Utah losing three of last four makes them unfit as 8-point favorite and they have been shaved to -6. Still hate the thought of going against the Utes who have won 11 of 13 bowl games (9-4 ATS).
Betting Trend – 57% backing Indiana
BOWLS – Music City – (263) NEBRASKA vs. (263) TENNESSEE 3:30 ET ESPN
We will mention this only become of the circumstances. As of Dec. 22nd, QB Tommy Armstrong Jr. had yet to participate in any bowl game preparation with hamstring, which has bothered him late in the season. Armstrong is listed as – Doubtful – and Nebraska went to up three points to +6.5 and total came down from 61-58.
Betting Trend – 75% backing Tennessee and 56% on Under
BOWLS – Orange – (265) FLORIDA STATE vs. (266) MICHIGAN 8:00 ET ESPN
This total has been steadily coming down and now resides at 52.5 after opening at 58. The thinking is Michigan can stop almost any offense with great players at all three levels, while Florida State improved as the season went on defensively and they have the athletes to compete with the Wolverines. Value betting the lower total is lost, but not sure we still reach 50 points.
Betting Trend – 56% backing Under
BOWLS – Peach - (271) WASHINGTON vs. (272) ALABAMA 3:00 ET ESPN
Given Alabama’s defense and how disruptive they can be, the total on the first national semi-final has crumbled from 58 to 54. How both quarterbacks react to the pressure they will be under from the opposing team and internally will play a big part in final score. Still not going to overlook the Crimson Tide is 8-1 OVER as a neutral field favorite since 2014.
Betting Trend – 70% backing Under
BOWLS – Fiesta – (273) OHIO STATE vs. (274) CLEMSON 7:00 ET ESPN
In the second national semi-final, this total has also been lowered. This is one not quite as much, going from 61.5 to 59.5. A look at each clubs away numbers finds both were in the lower 50′s for total scores. Have to consider Ohio State is 15-6 OVER when the total is between 56.5 and 63, nonetheless, Clemson is 9-1 UNDER after scoring 42 or more points in two consecutive outings.
Betting Trend – 69% backing Over
NFL – (311) JACKSONVILLE at (312) INDIANAPOLIS 1:00 ET CBS
With Indianapolis missing the playoffs again, some football bettors are counting on the Colts lack of interest in season finale and dropped them from -7 to -4.5 against Jacksonville. The logic is there with Indy only 3-4 SU and ATS at home and the Jaguars 5-2 ATS as visitors this year. At adjusted price, have to think about Colts at 9-1 ATS, after posting 1-2 ATS mark over three-game stretch.
Betting Trend – 95% backing Indianapolis
NFL – (325) ARIZONA at (326) LOS ANGELES 4:25 ET FOX
After sensational win over Seattle, part of the wagering community are not sold Arizona will have a follow up road effort and have sent the Cardinals from -7.5 to -6. While this is possible, what does Los Angeles have to play for on a 0-6 SU and ATS dry spell and just blowing game to San Francisco? Enough said.
Betting Trend – 95% backing Arizona
BOWLS – Cotton - (277) WESTERN MICHIGAN vs. (278) WISCONSIN 1:00 ET ESPN
Both teams hold on to the ball in possessing for better than 34 minutes a contest, which can shorten a game, especially if the defenses are sound and the total has fallen a couple points to 52. Whether this total is higher or lower, it will depend upon if the offense generates big plays or not. Here is to thinking they will.
Betting Trend – 86% backing Under
BOWLS – Sugar - (281) AUBURN vs. (282) OKLAHOMA 8:30 ET ESPN
For an 8-4 team, Auburn is being given a lot of credit in Sugar Bowl showdown with Oklahoma and has plummeted from +6 to +3. It is understood the Tigers will be healthier than they were the later stages of November and have the far better defense. However, have to consider Auburn was 2-4 SU versus other Power 5 conference bowl foes.
Betting Trend – 78% backing Oklahoma
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 313-297-3
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 190-164-2
Line Movement Direction Record – 533-484-5