This topic has come up a great deal over the years, does betting against the public really work? The short answer is -Yes – when it comes to betting NFL football, but it is not a broad-based solution.
There are any number of websites and sportsbooks that show you the percentage of number of bets placed on a particular game for side, total and money lines. This can show you the number of wagers based on percents and how if at all how influential the money actually is.
For example, if the Dallas Cowboys have 83 percent of the best placed on them against say Minnesota playing at home and the opening line of Dallas -4 is still the same, oddsmakers realize this is all public money as smaller wagers and are not compelled to adjust the line despite what would appear to be one-sided action.
It is common knowledge most bettors prefer favorites, they are comfortable to wager on and for most it is easy to make a case for them. Of course sportsbooks like GTBets are well-schooled into the minds of the normal sports bettor and set numbers based on those factors. What to look for here are underdogs of a touchdown or more playing a division/conference foe and having 20 or less percent public betting support.
It starts with no respect for the underdog, who in this case either has a great deal of knowledge about opponent (division) or working knowledge (conference) and they have more motivation in contests like this, covering over 70 percent of the time the last decade.
Bet Against Public Favorites with Clear Weaknesses
Coming into this season, the usual suspects for public to support are New England, Pittsburgh, Carolina, Green Bay and Seattle, with Denver on the radar.
The first four teams should have exceptional offenses and the latter two just as strong on defense. When this Super 6 faces inferior squads in the first quarter of the season (and later pending results), little doubt the betting masses will be all over this group versus the NFL odds.
However, consider the Patriots without Brady, the Steelers and Packers defenses, the Panthers with Super Bowl loser hangover (yes it is real) and Seahawks and Broncos offenses to cover spreads of six points or more. Watch closely and be selective and pounce on best opportunities when these teams are at 80+ percent of bets made on them.