Consequential Line Moves and Free Picks for Jan. 18

January 18, 2017

We hit the middle of the work week and our line moves will focus in on a pair of NBA matchups and two games in college hoops. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks when we post them, to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow!

NBA – (503) MEMPHIS at (504) WASHINGTON 7:05 ET  FSSO, CSN-MA

One might think Washington’s 12-game home winning streak would attract Wizards action. Those betting basketball have noticed, just in a different way, lifting the total from 203 to 207. Though your average score of a Washington home game is 212.5 points, they are just 12-11 OVER. Besides how the Wizards put up points, Memphis plays a different game on the road compared to at home, averaging  206.8, versus 190.8 in their building. Both teams fit strong OVER tendencies, but when you look at the actual scores of those trends, they fall in 203 to 207 point range. If the total stays at 207, let’s lean toward lower score.

Betting Trend – 95% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under

NBA – (511) ATLANTA at (512) DETROIT 8:05 ET  FSDT, FSSE

It has been a wild ride with Atlanta, who started hot, went stone cold and now has won nine of 10 (7-3 ATS). With Detroit having all sorts of problems and coach Stan Van Gundy feeling the heat with the Pistons having lost 11 of 16 SU and ATS, the home team has gone from a Pick to +2. Honestly, hard to make a case for Detroit, who is 3-7 SU and ATS of late against Atlanta and with how the Hawks are playing, this seems like the visitor or Pass.

Betting Trend – 83% backing Atlanta

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Atlanta

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CBB – (519) FLORIDA at (520) SOUTH CAROLINA 6:30 ET  SECN

www.vegasproinsidersdaily.com		With how Kentucky has been playing, everyone else is relegated to second fiddle, nonetheless, both Florida and South Carolina have yet to lose in SEC action. The Gamecocks opened as Pick and have been lifted to -2, thanks to a defense which in third in the country in field goal percentage allowed (36.5%), which brings to mind a verse from an old Rob Zombie song “strangling the breeze”. However, Florida is no slouch with 10-3 and 7-4 ATS records in away games this season. I’ll grab the points with South Carolina 12-26 ATS as a home favorite of three points or less.

Betting Trend – 61% backing South Carolina

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Florida

CBB – (547) MIAMI-FL at (548) WAKE FOREST  8:00 ET ACCN

Wake Forest was sent out as one point favorite over Miami and has the numbers to back it home at 6-1 and 4-1-2 ATS. Yet those making basketball picks had another notion in actually seeing the stats or how these teams play and flipped the Hurricanes to -1.5. Offensively, the Demon Deacons score almost seven more points a game, but both shoot the ball well from the field. Where the game could change is Miami is much better defensively (38.1% shooting defense vs. 44.6%) and has the athletes who can really crash the glass. We’ll side with the Canes because of those elements and Wake being 0-6 ATS at home off a home game.

Betting Trend – 85% backing Miami-Fl.

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Miami-Fl.

 

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 17-14 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 8-8 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 24-23 ATS

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