Consequential Line Moves and Free Picks for Feb. 9th

February 9, 2017

Big night in college basketball with two Monster Matchups. In one of them, the total has been adjusted, plus, we have line moves in three other games as well. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (7-2 of late), to see what we are thinking. See you back here for tomorrow.

NBA – (707) UTAH at (708) DALLAS  8:35 ET  RTRM+, FSSW

The Jazz are playing some sweet tunes and are after their fifth straight (3-1 ATS) victory tonight in Dallas. Enough of those betting basketball are confident Utah will get this accomplished and elevated them from -2 to -4 over the Cuban’s. After winning six of seven, the Mavericks have dropped two in a row and have yet to defeat the Jazz in three tries this season, though they have covered the past two. Hard to argue with Utah being 19-9 as a road favorite, but with this many points, prefer the fact the Mavericks are 14-5 ATS revenging a same season loss.

Betting Trend – 74% backing Utah

Doug’s VPID Take – Dallas covers

CBB – (733) CLEVELAND STATE at (734) VALPARAISO 8:00 ET W-ESPN

Though this is a matchup of the best and worst of the Horizon League, for reasons unknown, Valparaiso is a falling home favorite, down to -10, after opening at -13. While we agree, this is not the same quality of past Crusaders’ teams, the Vikings are 3-13 and 3-11 ATS on the road. Dress up Cleveland State with 10 or more points and they are miserable 2-12 ATS, being blasted by 19 PPG. Lastly, no real positive history for the last place Vikings who have lost six in a row to Valpo, covering once.

Betting Trend – 68% backing Valparaiso

Doug’s VPID Take – Valparaiso covers

www.vegasproinsidersdaily.com		CBB – (741) NORTH CAROLINA at (742) DUKE 8:00 ET  ESPN

We know and have heard all about the history and the ESPN announcers will once again remind us of the small working quarters at Durham. (Like we care) Besides the usual high stakes, basketball bettors have focused on the total and lowered it two points to 160.5. Both teams have great offensive firepower, but Duke can be beaten off the dribble defensively and North Carolina is a shade slow defending the three, conceding eight a contest. Unless the shooting is off for both squads, expect the Blue Devils to reach 9-2 OVER in ACC action.

Betting Trend – 63% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take -  Lean Over

CBB – (751) SMU at (752) TEMPLE  9:00 ET  ESPN2

In this American Conference clash, the total is tumbling from 138.5 to 135.5. The adjusted figure suggests a few possibilities. It starts with SMU holding opponents to 58.6 PPG on 38.8 percent shooting. Temple is not an offensive juggernaut, making just 42.7 percent from the field and they are rather dependent on the three-ball in converting nine a game. While the Owls are 9-2 OVER in AAC play, the Mustangs are 10-1 UNDER in road games after allowing 55 points or less the past three seasons. I will support the idea of SMU’s defense coming through and making the Owls shooters blink and take the lower score.

Betting Trend – 96% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under

 

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 33-33 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 15-20-1 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 48-50-1 ATS

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