Compelling Line Moves and Free Picks for Jan. 12th

January 12, 2017

A couple other NBA games have line moves besides what we have listed below, but they are injury-related, thus, not real line moves based on bettors thinking. We have these plus college hoops and a NHL contest to talk about. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks when we post them, to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow!

NBA – (505) CHICAGO at (506) NEW YORK 8:05  TNT

Not exactly riveting TV on TNT, even though these teams are from major markets. This is made worse with no Jimmy Butler for Chicago (home sick) and New York super frustrated about last second loss to Philadelphia last night. Even with these depressing factors, enough of those making NBA picks have raised the total from 204.5 to 206.5. This seems like it could go either way, however, the Bulls are 13-5 UNDER on the road and the Knicks are 14-6 UNDER after a loss by six points or less.

Betting Trend – 83% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under

NBA – (509) DALLAS vs. (510) PHOENIX  10:05 ET  FSSW, FSAZ

It is international flavor day in the NBA with earlier contest in London and this one in Mexico City. Not sure what those south of the our border think about a couple of crummy teams, but somebody does, as Dallas has gone from +1 to -2 against Phoenix. If you are betting basketball, the value appears to be with the Suns who have covered five of six, including 4-1 ATS as underdogs, while the slumping Mavs have dropped three straight SU and ATS.

Betting Trend – 58% backing Phoenix

Doug’s VPID Take - Lean Phoenix

CBB –  (517) NOTRE DAME at (518) MIAMI-FL 7:00 ET  ESPN

www.vegasproinsidersdaily.com Mandatory Credit: Dawson Powers-USA TODAY

Notre Dame surprisingly is tied for first place atop the ACC standings and has a mighty test in Coral Gables this evening. Miami lost quite a bit of veteran talent from last year, but still is 11-3 this season. Those betting basketball are not on board with how the Fighting Irish have been playing and pushed them from +2.5 to +4.5. Not agreeing where this is headed, with Notre Dame having more veteran club, more ways to score and Miami 0-6 ATS versus teams who attempt 21 or more three-point shots a game and 3-9 ATS on the season.

Betting Trend – 53% backing Notre Dame

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Notre Dame

CBB – (593) MURRAY STATE at (594) EASTERN ILLINOIS 8:00 ET  

Murray State is a perennial favorite in the Ohio Valley, but this year’s team has not looked as strong, unable to shoot it as well as previous Racers squads. With Murray State in the midst of seemingly unfair four-game conference road trip, they have fallen from -3 to a Pick at Eastern Illinois. The Panthers have played a lesser schedule than their opponent and does not shoot very well either, making less than 40 percent in five of last six contests, including four in a row. Though Eastern Illinois is tempting, we will go with the pedigree at this number, with Murray State 14-6 SU as visitors.

Betting Trend – 88% backing Murray State

Doug’s VPID Take – Murray State covers

NHL – (7) MONTREAL at (8) MINNESOTA 8:05 ET  NBCSN

Despite the fact Montreal has won four of five and saved goalie Carey Price to play tonight after whipping Winnipeg 7-4 last night, Minnesota has jumped from -140 to -160 home favorites. Besides the Canadiens playing last evening, the Wild is truly rested, having played on Sunday and their coach gave them the day off yesterday from practice. Though Price is considered the best goalie in the league, Minny netminder Devan Dubnyk has been even better statistically and his club is 12-2 versus winning teams.

Betting Trend – 72% backing Minnesota

Doug’s VPID Take – Minnesota wins

 

Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 51-40 (since 12/01/16)

Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 30-26 (since 12/01/16)

Line Movement Direction Record – 81-66 (since 12/01/16)

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