Hard to believe we are down to 11 bowl games plus the championship contest. We have line moves for three battles today plus NBA and college basketball action. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (444-353 of late and now on 52-34 run) when we post them, to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
BOWLS – Arizona – (261) SOUTH ALABAMA at (502) AIR FORCE 5:30 ET CampusInsiders.com (side and total)
Cable television will not be the way to see this contest, having to rely on other methods. Air Force opened as a large -12.5 point favorite and have gone to -14, thanks to great option attack for 323 yards on the ground and South Alabama run defense which permits 213 YPG rushing. The Jaguars average only 25.4 PPG which plays a part into sinking total, down from 57.5 to 55. Honestly, if it were a regular season game, this would be a ‘Pass’, but we lean taking the points and lower score and hope for the best.
Betting Trend – 64% backing South Alabama and 84% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Leans South Alabama and Under
BOWLS – Music City - (263) NEBRASKA vs. (263) TENNESSEE 3:30 ET ESPN (side and total)
We will mention this only become of the circumstances. As of Dec. 22nd, QB Tommy Armstrong Jr. had yet to participate in any bowl game preparation with hamstring, which has bothered him late in the season. Armstrong is listed as – Doubtful – and Nebraska went to up three points to +6.5 and total came down from 61-58. Update – The total has gone back up a point to 59, but influential cash is shaping the side, based on betting trends, with Tennessee now at -9.5.
Betting Trend – 58% backing Tennessee and 64% on Under
Doug’s VPID Take - Leans on Tennessee and Over
BOWLS – Orange – (265) FLORIDA STATE vs. (266) MICHIGAN 8:00 ET ESPN
This total has been steadily coming down and now resides at 52.5 after opening at 58. The thinking is Michigan can stop almost any offense with great players at all three levels, while Florida State improved as the season went on defensively and they have the athletes to compete with the Wolverines. Value betting the lower total is lost, but not sure we still reach 50 points. Update – The total has continued to fall even more, now at 51. We agree thinking someone will win 27-17.
Betting Trend – 60% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take - Play Under
NBA - (707) DETROIT at (708) ATLANTA 7:05 ET FSDT,FSSE
Atlanta is not being trusted despite the fact Detroit is 6-11 SU and ATS on the road, down from -4 to -2.5. Playing this confrontation appears to be the lesser of two evils, however, when the line is +3 to -3 and teams like the Hawks are playing with revenge off a straight up loss as a home favorite, against opponent off a loss against a division rival, they are 6-32 ATS the last five seasons.
Betting Trend – 66% backing Detroit
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Detroit
CBB – (751) USC at (752) OREGON 10:00 ET FS-1
With Oregon’s upset of previously unbeaten UCLA two nights ago, Oregon is being hit with sharp action money, instead of public cash, which is a bit a surprise. USC also comes into this clash without a loss at 14-0, but they are drawing more skepticism in not covering last five contests. Can the Ducks raise their level of play again or are the Trojans the right play with their 12-3 ATS mark in a road game when the total is 145 to 149.5?
Betting Trend – 61% backing USC
Doug’s VPID Take - USC covers
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 315-300-3
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 190-165-2
Line Movement Direction Record – 533-484-5