Let’s dive into college football line moves for this weekend with a load of fresh material. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (216-174 of late), when posted, to see what we are thinking. See you back here Sunday with NFL version.
CFB – (303) LOUISVILLE at (304) SYRACUSE 8:00 ET ESPN2 *New* (side and total)
With Louisville looking explosive and Syracuse putting in new coach Dino Barbers passing offense, the total has blown up from 64 to 68.5. The preference has also been on Louisville, who look to have their best team in Bobby Petrino’s second go round at the ‘Ville. I can see the Cardinals already looking forward to Florida State game next week and might not have sharpest effort. I’ll go against both line moves.
Betting Trend – 68% backing Louisville and 68% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Syracuse covers and Under
CFB – (311) OHIO U. at (312) KANSAS 2:30 ET FSN Aff.
The combination of Ohio U. losing to Texas State at home as 17.5 point favorites, their top running back A.J. Ouellette out indefinitely with foot injury and Kansas showing life even against Rhode Island, has seen Kansas go from +2 to -3 in Lawrence. Should the Jayhawks really be favored against any FBS team? Update – This felt like an overreaction and we are seeing the money shift with Kansas now at -2. On Tuesday 78% of bets placed were on Kansas, now look!
Betting Trend – 50-50 Action
Doug’s VPID Take - Lean Ohio U.
CFB – (325) UL-MONROE at (326) OKLAHOMA 7:00 ET (side and total) PPV
Though Houston played a great game, that had to be humiliating loss for Oklahoma and the general consensus is the Sooners will want to make somebody pay. That explains Oklahoma rising from -44 to 46.5 and the total up two points to 65. Bob Stoops team covers with higher total only if they want to. Update – The spread in virtually unchanged with total up a half point to 65.5. Not really sure how you bet the side other than backing angry Oklahoma bunch.
Betting Trend – 62% backing Oklahoma and 67% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean on Oklahoma and Over
CFB – (337) NORTHERN ILLINOIS at (338) SOUTH FLORIDA 7:00 ET CBSSN
With Northern Illinois having lost at Wyoming in 3 OT’s and having to travel from Laramie to Tampa (with a stop home in DeKalb), the Huskies are becoming increasingly larger dogs, up from +12 to +15. Not being able to stop the Cowboys is a real concern and South Florida is a much better team expected to compete with Houston in the AAC. NIU is 6-1 ATS as away underdogs, however, has not covered in three tries against Bulls. Update – Some of the big public sportsbooks in Vegas now have USF at -14 or -14.5, while offshore is at -15 or -15.5. Northern Illinois is tempting dog based on history, but loss to Wyoming is disconcerting.
Betting Trend – 72% backing South Florida
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Northern Illinois
CFB – (373) UTEP at (374) TEXAS 7:00 ET LHN *New*
Texas was so impressive against Notre Dame and the money keeps flowing in on them, up from -28.5 to -30.5 and would not be surprised if it goes higher. Where I see an issue is the emotion. A double OT win on a short week, coupled with an in-state foe you know you should beat has the Longhorns giving workman-like effort. The Horns will hook the Miners, but win 45-20.
Betting Trend – 66% backing Texas
Doug’s VPID Take – UTEP covers
CFB – (345) ARKANSAS STATE at (346) AUBURN 7:30 ET SECN
Auburn will try and get offense untracked and maybe only make 12 QB substitutions this week (23 last Saturday) against Arkansas State team which looked bad at home against Toledo. The Tigers were lifted two points to -19 and have the defense to contain the Red Wolves. Update – Some of the offshore books which attract sharper players have moved Auburn up to -20, otherwise, the status quo has remained. Tigers defense the difference.
Betting Trend – 72% backing Auburn
Doug’s VPID Take – Auburn covers
CFB –(357) WESTERN KENTUCKY at (358) ALABAMA 3:30 ET ESPN2
Alabama could have hardly looked any better against USC which is bad news for the rest of college football. Western Kentucky has an excellent offense yet again, but against Crimson Tide defense, they do not figure to score much and Bama has gone from -26.5 to -28.5. Update – This has mostly remained the same with a few -28 spreads around at various wagering outlets. It’s not a matter if Alabama can cover, just if they want to put in the effort necessary.
Betting Trend – 77% backing Alabama
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Alabama
CFB – (365) FLORIDA ATLANTIC at (366) MIAMI-FL 6:00 ET W-ESPN
Miami meets FAU for a second straight year, this time at home and has been lifted from -21.5 to -24. The Owls offense is good enough to cover the spread but they allowed 500 yards to Southern Illinois who was 3-8 last year. Best to see if number goes down, but Hurricanes are safer play. Update – Across the board this has moved to -25 and my connections tell me the public and sharps are backing the Canes.
Betting Trend – 94% backing Miami-FL
Doug’s VPID Take - Miami covers
CFB – (371) IOWA STATE at (372) IOWA 7:30 ET BTN
With 10 of the past 15 meetings for the Cy-Hawk trophy been UNDER’s, including six of seven in Iowa City, the total has tumbled from 53.5 to 51. Neither team looked good on defense, but the intensity level will be much higher in this rivalry. Not sure Iowa State gets to 20 points, thus prefer lower number. Update – A modest buyback as about half the sportsbooks checked to 51.5. Sticking with original belief.
Betting Trend – 55% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take - Lean Under
CFB – (373) NORTH CAROLINA at (374) ILLINOIS 7:30 ET BTN *New* (side and total)
North Carolina had Georgia on the ropes but due to lack of poise by players and head coach, the Tar Heels lost their focus and were beaten. The Heels opened as 10-point road favorite but were chopped down to -7.5 as the week progressed as enough bettors wondered about UNC bouncing back and pondered if Illinois is better with Lovie Smith as head coach. The total also followed suit, down from 61 to 58. The logic make sense, Illini/Under or Heels/Over and at these prices, the latter is too tempting to pass on.
Betting Trend – 53% backing North Carolina and 71% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – North Carolina covers and Over
CFB – (383) BYU at (384) UTAH 7:30 ET FOX
This has the makings of a real defensive clash, with two strong defenses in the Holy War. Both defenses employ attacking style which can forces the quarterback to get rid of ball quickly and can definitely see that occurring in this battle. Like the idea of very physical contest as total has dipped from 47.5 to 45. Update – Market is satisfied with total at 45, where it has remained. What is interesting is bets placed were running at 70% UNDER, now look where they are. Has to be public money and oddsmakers are not responding.
Betting Trend – 74% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
Top 5 Public ATS Bet Percentages (Highest First) (2-3 record) – New Mexico, Miami-FL, Notre Dame, Eastern Michigan and Clemson
Top 5 Public Totals Bet Percentages (Highest First) (1-4 record) – WSU/Boise St. OVER, SMU/Bay. OVER, PSU/Pitt. UNDER, CMU/Okie St. OVER, Tulsa, Ohio St. OVER
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 183-161-2
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 141-114-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 315-288-3