College Football Line Moves and Free Picks for Sept.16-17

September 16, 2016

Today we dug up three key line moves that have occurred since Tuesday and update you on the contests which had the biggest line  movement from earlier in the week. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (235-185 of late and recent 19-11 mark), when posted,  to see what we are thinking. See you back here Sunday for NFL football updates.

CFB – (107) ARIZONA STATE at (108) UTSA  9:30 ET ESPN2  *New*

There is a train of thought circulating in Pac-12 country that Arizona State might be better than what was thought. While the defense might not be any good, the offense has explosive potential. UTSA has not looked bad defensively, but on offense, they are averaging 20 PPG against teams permitting 27.5. The Sun Devils have been elevated from -18 to -21.5 and should have their way, but focus could be an issue with Pac-12 campaign starting next week.

Betting Trend – 73% backing Arizona State

Doug’s VPID Take - Lean Arizona State

CFB – (115) EAST CAROLINA at (116) SOUTH CAROLINA  4:00 ET SECN

South Carolina is averaging 13.5 PPG after a pair of SEC road showdowns. Being back home should help the offense, but facing a motivated East Carolina club that takes great delight in knocking off bigger programs in the area has helped push the Gamecocks from -5.5 to -3.5 in Columbia. The Pirates are 21-7 ATS as road dogs of seven or less. Update - By Wednesday, this number had settled at 3, which is where it has remained. Like ESU’s team, but South Carolina at home at this price seems cheap.

Betting Trend – 62% backing East Carolina

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean South Carolina

CFB – (117) FLORIDA STATE at (118) LOUISVILLE 12:00 ET  ABC

www.vegasproinsidersdaily.com		Terrific ACC encounter of two Top 10 teams and the view among bettors is points will not be in short supply with two potent offenses. The total was lifted early from 63 to 65 and the OVER has been the correct call the past two years. Louisville comes in 8-1 OVER after scoring 20 points or more in the first half of straight games, but the intensity will be high. Update - The upward momentum has continued, with total not sitting at 67.5. Would love to make an argument for a lower score, but have 80% system that says the OVER is the right selection.

Betting Trend – 71% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take - Play Over

CFB – (127) COLORADO at (128) MICHIGAN 3:30 ET  BTN

This is Michigan’s third straight home game and finally faces somebody with a pulse, however, the Wolverines are still attracting a lot of attention and are up two points to -20.5 over Colorado. The Buffaloes visually are faster and playing with more confidence, but we learn where they really are this week against top flight opponent. Update - On Thursday, the money started coming on Colorado and they fell back to +19.5. Would not be surprised at all to see this at original starting point by kickoff.

Betting Trend – 73% backing Michigan

Doug’s VPID Take – Colorado covers

CFB –(131) MID. TENN. STATE at (132) BOWLING GREEN 12:00 ET  W-ESPN

After being crushed by Ohio State and holding on to defeat North Dakota 27-26, football bettors are spooked by Bowling Green and have raised them from +3.5 to +5.5. Middle Tennessee State was vanquished by Vanderbilt by 23, but is still averaging 417 passing YPG, which gives them a chance. Blue Raiders however are 1-11 ATS after two straight contests with 40 or more pass attempts. Update - This did go as high as 6.5, before settling at current level of 6. Could be nice spot for home dog.

Betting Trend – 54% backing Mid. Tenn. State

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Bowling Green

CFB – (143) FLORIDA ATLANTIC at (144) KANSAS STATE  2:30 ET FSN Affli.   *New*

Florida Atlantic did not show much in loss at Miami-Fl. and the Hurricanes were lacking in any kind of motivation, in a game they could have more by 40 or more points. Kansas State is home, off a loss to Stanford and is more a running team which does not favor the Owls. Like a speeding locomotive, K-State has gone from -19.5 to -25.5 and the Wildcats are 14-3 ATS at home after tallying 14 or fewer points. Unfortunately, no value in this selection left.

Betting Trend – 75% backing Kansas State

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Kansas State

CFB – (167) OREGON at (168) NEBRASKA 3:30 ET  ABC

Two offenses that have the proclivity to put up points has the total on the rise from 70.5 to 73. With the Oregon defense still not close to the Chip Kelly days, Nebraska should be able to keep scoreboard operator busy and it is a given the Ducks will do the same. When the total moves in this manner in this range, the OVER is 11-1. Update - The money keeps coming and the total has moved further upward to 74 and might go higher. Only weather or turnovers would seem to stop this.

Betting Trend – 76% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over

CFB – (185) MICHIGAN STATE at (186) NOTRE DAME  7:30 ET  NBC *New*

Though they have not played in three years, bettors have memories and they know this is physical series and the past three games have been UNDER’s. With most people still wondering what Michigan State really has on offense, the total has tumbled four points to 50.5. One way to look to this adjustment is to determine what side you like, if it Notre Dame, the OVER would tempting, otherwise, if the Spartans suit your fancy, the UNDER could well be the better choice. While that all makes sense, get this, the Irish are 12-2 UNDER in September home games under coach Kelly, go figure.

Betting Trend – 53% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under

CFB – (203) USC at (204) STANFORD 8:00 ET ABC

USC has not earned anyone’s trust and the drubbing they suffered at the hands of Alabama still resonates. This leads to Trojans going from +6 to +8.5. Nonetheless, what do we really know about Stanford, who was outgained by Kansas State. The underdog is 8-1 ATS and worth consideration going past key number. Update - By Wednesday, the Cardinal were at -9, but when Friday hit, USC was attracting more action and had gone from negative betting trend to positive one (see below) and was at +8.5 at most books. Not seeing Stanford here.io

Betting Trend – 59% backing USC

Doug’s VPID Take - USC covers

CFB – (205) TEXAS at (206) CALIFORNIA 10:30 ET  ESPN

With Texas presenting the appearance of the best club in the Big 12 and California requiring at least 13 defenders to stop the run (291 YPG allowed), the Longhorns have been built up from -5.5 to -8 on the road. The Golden Bears got backdoor cover at San Diego State and with this adjustment could engineer same thing with prolific passing offense. Update - Cooler heads have prevailed and Texas is on buyback to -7. Like Cal better with extra point and would even consider at less than a touchdown.

Betting Trend – 70% backing Texas

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean California

 

Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 185-163-2

Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 142-114-1

Line Movement Direction Record – 332-298-3

 

Top 5 Public ATS Bet Percentages (Highest First) (4-6 record) – TCU, Washington State, Kentucky, Wisconsin and N.C. State

Top 5 Public Totals Bet Percentages (Highest First) (1-9 record) – Flor. St./Louis. OVER, Colo./Mich. OVER, USF/Syra. OVER, Duke/North. UNDER and USC/Stan. OVER

 

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