Another big college football weekend is ready to roll and we have the latest line moves both from earlier in the week and currently. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (286-227 of late and recent 71-30 mark), when we post them, to see what we are thinking. See you back Sunday.
CFB –Friday- (107) DUKE at (108) LOUISVILLE 7:00 ET ESPN
With Louisville playing for first time since Clemson loss, the general consensus is Duke will be nothing more than a speed bump for the Cardinals and they have flown from -31 to -35. With QB Lamar Jackson’s talent, if Louisville comes to play, they can name final score. Of note, Bobby Petrino coached teams are 10-0 ATS at home when the total is 62 or higher. Update – The latest numbers show about a 50-50 split at 34.5 and 35. As stated, the ‘Ville does this if they want to.
Betting Trend – 63% backing Louisville
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Louisville
CFB –Friday- (111) MISSISSIPPI ST. at (112) BYU 10:15 ET ESPN *New*
Evidently points are not going to be in short supply with this total flying from 52 to 57. In doing research and not wanting to bore you with the details, when you have two strong teams, who are average throwing the ball and below average pass defenses in a nonconference clash, the OVER is 34-6.
Betting Trend – 55% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take - Lean Over
CFB – (119) BOWLING GREEN at (120) TOLEDO 3:30 ET W-ESPN
Only way to describe this line movement is – oddsmakers error – as Toledo opened as -24 and within hours was -31. This is going to be Bowling Green’s worse team in six years, while Toledo is still a MAC power. Another game of favorite’s mindset and you have to take a stab on how the Rockets might feel. Update – About 40 percent of sportsbooks checked have remained at 31 and the balance is at 31.5. If you read about this on Tuesday, the action was split in half, now the betting trends are weighted towards the Rockets.
Betting Trend – 75% backing Toledo
Doug’s VPID Take – Slight lean Bowling Green
CFB – (123) CONNECTICUT at (124) SOUTH FLORIDA 7:00 ET CBSSN *New*
South Florida has been pumped up from -17 to -20 over Connecticut. This is rather easy to understand with the Bulls averaging 44.2 PPG and UConn at merely 19.8 PPG. With the total at 53, that would mean a 36.5 to 16.5 projected final score and I question if the South Florida defense is good enough to make that happen.
Betting Trend – 82% backing South Florida
Doug’s VPID Take - Lean Connecticut
CFB – (141) N.C. STATE at (142) CLEMSON 12:00 ET ABC *New*
With this ACC total climbing from 56.5 to 62, it’s like Ken Bone’s sudden popularity. While we understand Bone is having his 15 minutes of fame, not sure the total will come back down. One thought is N.C. State is 13-4 OVER when facing a winning team, but Clemson is 8-1 UNDER after scoring 42 or more points in consecutive contests. I am inclined to think both defenses will play well enough to keep score UNDER inflated total.
Betting Trend – 67% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
CFB - (145) KANSAS STATE at (146) OKLAHOMA 12:00 ET ESPN *New* (side and total)
Both the side and total in this Big 12 battle have been altered, yet in theory, they do not align. With how Kansas State has been playing defense, the total dropping from 62 to 58.5 certainly has merit. What does not add up from that perspective is Oklahoma rising two points as favorite to -13.5. One would assume if the Sooners are to cover, the score would be higher. Maybe it is two different kinds of bettors looking at this contest, but when looking at the betting trends, it looks like sharp money on the total and I already know most wise guys are backing coach Snyder based on his history. I just happen to disagree.
Betting Trend – 57% backing Kansas State and 93% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Oklahoma and Play Over
CFB – (147) NEBRASKA at (148) INDIANA 3:30 ET ABC/ESPN2
I was a trifle surprised to see Nebraska fall from -7 to -4 at Indiana. I completely understand the Hoosiers beat Michigan State and hung with Ohio State into the fourth quarter and are improved, yet wonder if there is more to Huskers QB Tommy Armstrong Jr.’s injured ankle. If Cornhuskers go back up, that will answer question. Update – By Wednesday, Indiana was all the way down to -3, driven by strong wise guy market. Maybe the Hoosiers pull it off, but I will not be in their corner.
Betting Trend – 61% backing Nebraska
Doug’s VPID Take – Nebraska covers
CFB –(155) WEST VIRGINIA at (156) TEXAS TECH 12:00 ET FS1
With Texas Tech a prolific offensive team which does not play a lick of defense, the Red Raiders were flipped from -1 to +1.5 against West Virginia. Having watched the Mountaineers a few times already, they are not as good as Texas Tech offensively, but better on defense. Wonder about West Virginia playing first true road game. Update – This line has been bouncing back and forth in trying to figure who should be the favorite all week. A suitable number would be a Pick based on what we have witness.
Betting Trend – 72% backing Texas Tech
Doug’s VPID Take - Texas Tech covers
CFB – (169) UTSA at (170) RICE 7:00 ET BEIN-SP
With UTSA off big upset of Southern Miss and Rice having its worst team in years at 0-5, this C-USA conflict jumped from a Pick to -3 in favor of the Roadrunners. UTSA might be worth a look being 5-3 ATS as a road favorite and is 12-6 ATS off a SU win. The visitor is also in 24-5 ATS positive system. Update – On Wednesday, this crept up to -3.5, where it has remained since, with overwhelming support for UTSA.
Betting Trend – 94% backing UTSA
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean UTSA
CFB – (175) ALABAMA at (176) TENNESSEE 3:30 ET CBS
Rightfully so, bettors cannot get enough of Alabama right now and while it is a given Tennessee has backdoor cover possibilities with how they play, the Crimson Tide are different. Bama was elevated two points to -12.5 in Knoxville and if they run the ball as expected, the Vols might have a tough time. Only caveat is the Tide 3-11 ATS when the total is between 56.5 and 63. Update – The Tide has kept rolling with 80 percent of the books now publishing a -13 on Bama. Of course the sharp money will be on the ‘Comeback kids’ as home underdogs, but just not sure if Tennessee can pull that off against this team.
Betting Trend – 62% backing Alabama
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Alabama
CFB – (205) UTAH at (206) OREGON STATE 4:00 ET PAC-12N
Oregon State has shown general improvement in 2016 and with Utah a still shaky road favorite, the Beavers have gnawed into sportsbooks release and is down four points to +9. While Oregon State’s recent history off a victory is not great, I’d wait to see if number goes back to +10 and grab the Beavers. Update – Rather amazing a Power 5 conference contest would have such a move on the line, with Utah all the way down to -7.5 or -8. This happened despite more bets placed on Utah.
Betting Trend – 59% backing Utah
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Oregon State
Top 5 Public ATS Bet Percentages (Highest First) (13-17 ATS record) – UTSA, Troy, Clemson, South Florida and Western Michigan
Top 5 Public Totals Bet Percentages (Highest First) (12-18 record) – Pitt./Virg. OVER, Iowa St./Texas OVER, Kansas St./Okla. OVER, W. Mich./Akron OVER, Minn./Mary. Under
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 224-198-2
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 153-121-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 383-340-3