College Football Line Moves and Free Picks for Oct.1

September 30, 2016

Time to get fired up for football and we have the new big line moves along with updated info from those earlier in the week. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (258-205 of late and recent 42-31 mark), when posted,  to see what we are thinking. See you back here Sunday for NFL.

CFB – (113) MARSHALL at (114) PITTSBURGH 7:30 ET  FSN Affil.  *New* (side and total)

Marshall is off a major beat-down from high-flying Louisville, while Pittsburgh has to regroup from last seconds loss to North Carolina. We can understand why the Panthers would be a sinking underdog from -17.5 to -15.5 because the Thundering Herd are a passing team and Pitt is 126th against the pass. However, the total down three points to 66.5 does not add up with the Panthers defense and Marshall not having the personnel to slow Pittsburgh potent running game.

Betting Trend – 55% backing Marshall and 56% on Over

Doug’s VPID Take - Lean Marshall, Play Over

CFB – (129) NOTRE DAME vs. (130) SYRACUSE  12:00 ET ESPN

Tumultuous start of the season for Notre Dame at 1-3, firing their defensive coordinator and coach Brian Kelly announcing every position is up for grabs for those who want to play with passion. This has bettors skittish and they sent the not so Fighting Irish from -13 to -10. Syracuse has been retooled into passing team and is 6th nationally, with Notre Dame is 94th in pass defense. UpdateMost public books have Notre Dame at -10.5 or -11, however, wagering outlets that attract more sharp action are at -10. The big question for bettors is will the Irish pass defense hold up?

Betting Trend – 62% backing Notre Dame

Doug’s VPID Take - Lean Notre Dame

CFB – (161) WISCONSIN at (162) MICHIGAN 3:30 ET  ABC  *New*

Football bettors have sent the total in this Big Ten battle down, way down. After opening at 48.5, by Wednesday night it was at 44.5, as defense is expected to rule the day. Given the spread, that would mean Michigan should win about 27-17, which sounds about right. Teams like Wisconsin after allowing 17 points or less in three straight games, against opponent after a win by 21 or more points are 39-13 UNDER. Based on betting trend, heavy wise gut money on total.

Betting Trend – 88% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under

CFB – (163) LOUISVILLE at (164) CLEMSON 8:00 ET  ABC

www.vegasproinsidersdaily.com		Coaches do not talk to players about point spreads but they do talk about ‘respect’ and with Clemson having been taken from -3 to +2 at home against Louisville, the Tigers position coaches have a lot to communicate forward. The Cardinals have yet to show any weakness of any kind, thus, hard to say those betting football are wrong. UpdateJust starting to see Louisville slip over so slightly to -1.5 at about 40 percent of books checked. Look for this to continue till kickoff.

Betting Trend – 68% backing Louisville

Doug’s VPID Take – Clemson covers

CFB – (171) RICE at (172) SOUTHERN MISS  7:00 ET   *New*

With Rice at 0-4 and having lost to a pretty lousy North Texas crew lat week, the action has been on Southern Miss as the week progressed, up three digits to -24.5. The Golden Eagles are averaging 41.2 PPG and the Owls are giving up over 535 YPG and 39.2 PPG. With Rice only scoring 18.2 PPG, if Southern Miss wants to cover, they will.

Betting Trend – 85% backing Southern Miss

Doug’s VPID Take – Southern Miss covers

CFB – (193) ARIZONA at (194) UCLA 10:30 ET  ESPN

Two Pac-12 teams off incredibly disappointing losses, however, the betting action has all been one-sided with UCLA shoved from -10 to -13. This certainly seems like a lot of points and you have to weigh the defensive weakness of Arizona along with the Bruins disappointment of nearly having Stanford beaten. Know this; the Wildcats are 6-17 ATS away after gaining 6.75 or YPP. UpdateAs of midweek, the Bruins were at -13.5, where they have stayed. It would seem the only reason why UCLA would not cover is still playing the Stanford game in their heads and letting it linger.

Betting Trend – 72% backing UCLA

Doug’s VPID Take - Lean UCLA

CFB –(357) OKLAHOMA at (358) TCU 5:00 ET  FOX

Oklahoma might be 1-2, but there are still those who have faith in them and the Sooners have been moved from -1 to -3.5 at Fort Worth. From pure better perspective, taking Oklahoma on the half point hook seems risky and it might be better served to take a look at TCU even with their flaws and the fact they are 8-0 ATS coming off a road win. UpdateThe adjusted line in this Big 12 encounter has been steady all week and there is no inclination to believe it will move. I will swallow the half point hook with TCU.

Betting Trend – 82% backing Oklahoma

Doug’s VPID Take - Lean TCU

CFB – (215) OREGON at (216) WASHINGTON STATE 9:30 ET  PAC-12N

Most Washington State games are about four hours anyways, this one could be longer with two potent offense and two defenses that have more holes than a fishing net. With this in mind, the total for the Pac-12 encounter has been sent from 72 to 75. Who is going to argue with this and Oregon is 6-0 OVER after gaining 525 or more yards in three straight games. UpdateThis total went up to 75.5 at every sportsbook checked and see no reason to be afraid of his minor move.

Betting Trend – 94% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take - Play Over

CFB – (217) FRESNO STATE at (218) UNLV 10:30 ET CBSSN

How bad is Fresno State? UNLV just lost at home to Idaho and the Bulldogs went from +10 to +13 against the Rebels. On the surface this is tricky, but Fresno State is 4-15 ATS on the road after suffering a home loss. Besides, is UNLV really that bad they could blow another great opportunity? UpdateFresno State continued to receive better than the majority of betting action and sprinkled in was influential money, because the Bulldogs are now at +9.5. Much better value on UNLV.

Betting Trend – 58% backing Fresno State

Doug’s VPID Take – UNLV covers

CFB – (219) NEVADA at (220) HAWAI’I 11:59 ET Oceanic-PPV

Not aware of an injury, thus a bit surprised to see Nevada sinking from -6 to -3.5 on the Islands. Nevada has won seven straight in this matchup and is 5-1-1 ATS. If anything the Rainbow Warriors appear weaker and with Hawai’i 0-7 ATS after allowing 37 points or more in last outing, the Wolf Pack have added value. UpdateRoughly half the books have Nevada at -3, with the rest still at -3.5. Just do not see what there is to like about Rainbow Warriors other than nickname.

Betting Trend – 55% backing Hawai’i

Doug’s VPID Take – Nevada covers

Top 5 Public ATS Bet Percentages (Highest First) (9-11 ATS record) – Baylor, Maryland, Mississippi, Southern Miss and Florida

Top 5 Public Totals Bet Percentages (Highest First) (7-13 record) – ASU/USC OVER, UNC/FSU OVER, Oregon/Wash. St. OVER, WF/N.C. State UNDER, Northw./Iowa UNDER

 

Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 205-180-2

Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 146-116-1

Line Movement Direction Record – 358-317-3

Leave a Comment