College Football Line Moves and Free Picks for Nov. 4-5

November 4, 2016

Right back at you with all the latest line moves in college football that occurred this week, with both fresh ones and updates. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (327-261 of late and recent 112-87 mark), when we post them, to see what we are thinking. See you back here for NFL Sunday.

CFB - (317) CENTRAL MICHIGAN at (318) MIAMI-O 6:00 ET  CBSSN  *New*

Since starting 3-0, Central Michigan has stumbled, badly, with 2-4 and 1-5 ATS record. With Miami-O heating up despite the weather at 3-0 SU and ATS, after 0-6 SU beginning, the Chippewas have gone from -3.5 to a Pick. Central Mich. has the stronger squad, but has nine turnovers in last three gams. With the Redhawks 18-6 ATS off a double digit road win, we’ll back the home team.

Betting Trend -  54% backing Miami-O

Doug’s VPID Take - Lean Miami-O

CFB - (337) SYRACUSE at (338) CLEMSON 3:30 ET  ABC/ESPN2  *New*

I looked everywhere to make sense of how this ACC clash total could go from 58 to 67.5. I was convinced it was an initial misprint, but after finding five websites that had virtually the same information, the only conclusion to make was sharp bettors pounded what they thought was a soft total and hammered it. The only assessment to make is the Clemson offense will score against weak Syracuse defense and the Tigers won’t be as focused versus Orange passing offense. Just keep in mind Clemson is 12-4 UNDER after one or more ATS setbacks.

Betting Trend -  97% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take - Play Under

CFB - (341) INDIANA at (342) RUTGERS 12:00 ET  BTN

The way the rest of Indiana’s football schedule sets up, they could finish with a winning record for the first time since 2007, which would be only the second time this would have happened going back to 1995. Football bettors really like their chances to take the next step, moving them from -11.5 to -14 at Rutgers. However, the Hoosiers are 0-9 ATS after rushing for 350+ yards. Update – Though the number has stayed the same at -14, the betting trend has gone from basically 50-50 split to decidedly Rutgers.

Betting Trend – 74% backing Rutgers

Doug’s VPID Take -  Lean Rutgers

CFB – (345) FLORIDA STATE at (346) N.C. STATE 7:00 ET  ESPNU

Florida State already has three losses heading into November and the wagering public is not on this team, going down two points to -6 at N.C. State. While the Seminoles do not inspire confidence, betting the Wolfpack is a rollercoaster ride, as we have seen of late. Nevertheless, the Noles are 2-12-1 ATS vs. N.C. State. Update – Florida State actually went to -5 for Wednesday and Thursday before coming back up to -6.

Betting Trend – 90% backing Florida State

Doug’s VPID Take - Lean N.C. State

CFB - (351) OKLAHOMA STATE at (352) KANSAS STATE  3:30 ET  ABC/ESPN2  *New*

The total being lowered is a possible precursor to the outcome in this Big 12 tilt. The total is down four points to 56, when suggests the Kansas State defense will dictate type of play with running game to keep Oklahoma State offense off the field and the Wildcats defense is strong enough to curtail the Cowboys efforts. With these teams having played nine of 10 OVER, I cannot follow this.

Betting Trend -  84% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over

CFB – (387) FLORIDA INT. at (388) WEST. KENTUCKY 5:30 ET  beIN SPT

Western Kentucky is starting to put it together, with the offense and defense both improving and the Hilltoppers have shot up from -26.5 to -30 against Florida International. Though it is a big number, Western Kentucky is 9-2 ATS after tallying 31 or more points in two straight outings, with FIU 10-24 ATS versus winning teams. Update – The home continues to keep getting the money and is up to -32 and I don’t know how you take the other side.

Betting Trend – 98% backing Western Kentucky

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Western Kentucky

CFB –(393) OREGON at (394) USC 7:00 ET  ESPN

Though Oregon ended their five-game losing streak, USC has won four in a row, often in domineering fashion and has been jettisoned from -14 to -17 over the Ducks. With the Trojans having scored 41 or more points in three of last four games, few believe college football’s 127th rated Oregon defense will hold USC back. Update – The Trojans have been shoved to -17.5 and the betting trend has been turned around the Ducks early to the Men of Troy.

Betting Trend – 64% backing USC

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean USC

CFB – (395) MARSHALL at (396) OLD DOMINION 7:00 ET  MASN

Not even two years removed from Conference USA championship and 13-1 campaign, Marshall is 2-6 and has only one victory in league play and is up a whopping four points to +12 at Old Dominion. Remember, the Monarchs did not have football program in 2008 and this only third year in FBS football, but are only 4-7 ATS as home favorites. (3-0 ATS in 2016) Update – About a 50-50 split at 11.5 or 12 as this C-USA contest draws nearer.

Betting Trend – 80% backing Old Dominion

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Old Dominion

CFB – (411) ALABAMA at (412) LSU 8:00 ET  CBS  *New*

www.vegasproinsidersdaily.comFootball bettors are calling for hard-hitting defensive struggle far more than the oddsmakers and the total has plummeted from 50 to 45. While this is understandable, the Alabama offense is too potent and LSU offense is doing a far better job without Les Miles and I am on board with original line in this anticipated SEC showdown.

Betting Trend -  57% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over

CFB – (415) NEBRASKA at (416) OHIO STATE 8:00 ET  ABC

Nebraska has their second straight extremely difficult road game, heading to Ohio State and has blossomed as away underdog from +13.5 to +17. The Buckeyes defense can limit any opponent and the Huskers QB Tommy Armstrong Jr. is turnover prone which could setup Ohio State for an easy score. However, Ohio State is 2-10 ATS in Columbus after one or more Under’s. Update – Line has not moved all week in spite of heavy betting action on Cornhuskers by volume, which means sportsbooks are not respecting square action. Put me down as following the crowd on this one.

Betting Trend – 95% backing Nebraska

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Nebraska

CFB – (417) NEVADA at (418) NEW MEXICO  10:15 ET ESPNU

With New Mexico on a 4-1 run and Nevada just the opposite at 1-4, the Lobos have risen from -12 to -14.5. With the Wolf Pack 124th against the run and New Mexico now leading the nation in rushing at 357 YPG, how does Nevada slow them down? The Lobos are 11-3 ATS in the second half of the season since 2014. Update – New Mexico made it to -15 and the number has been quiet since.

Betting Trend -  64% backing New Mexico

Doug’s VPID Take – New Mexico covers

 

Top 5 Public ATS Bet Percentages (Highest First) (20-25 ATS record) – Michigan State, Tulsa, Syracuse, Temple and Nebraska

Top 5 Public Totals Bet Percentages (Highest First) (21-24 record) – Oregon St. /Stanford OVER, Mich. St./Illinois OVER, Pitt./Miami OVER, Mary./Mich. OVER and Geor. Tech./ UNC OVER

 

Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 246-238-2

Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 163-128-1

Line Movement Direction Record – 418-384-3

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