Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving Day and is ready to feast on leftovers and football the rest of the weekend. We certainly are with all the latest news on line moves in college football for Friday and Saturday. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (376-292 of late and recent 159-119 mark), when we post them, to see what we are thinking. See you back here Sunday for NFL.
CFB – Friday - (117) TOLEDO at (118) WESTERN MICHIGAN 5:00 ET ESPNU *New*
Unbeaten Western Michigan opened as 9.5-point favorite over Toledo, in what is thought to be defacto MAC championship game. Because Toledo has played so well all season also, the Rockets have definitely gotten a lot of support and dwindled to a +7 point underdog, backed with the No.5 total offense in the country. (The Broncos are 13th) In this series the underdog has covered eight of nine. The total has also jumped with these high-powered offenses from 64.5 to 70. Both can score, but they can also defend, holding opposing teams under 23 PPG.
Betting Trend – 65% backing Western Michigan and 75% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Toledo and Under
CFB – Friday - (123) ARKANSAS at (124) MISSOURI 2:30 ET CBS *New*
Another contest in which points are being expected to be rung up like a cash register at a department store is this SEC encounter. Both teams can pile up the yards and points and when their defenses face opponents who can also do the same, they yield rather easily, which is why the total was bumped from 68.5 to 73. Both teams can run and neither can stop the rush, thus, this has a chance to go OVER even with adjusted number.
Betting Trend – 66% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take - Lean Over
CFB - Friday - (125) CINCINNATI at (126) TULSA 8:30 ET ESPNU
For football bettors, opposites attract and that explains why Tulsa has blown up from -19 to -22.5 against Cincinnati. The Bearcats offense has gone in witness protection program with 26 points and two touchdowns in last four games. The Golden Hurricane can hardly be contained and is averaging 45.8 PPG in their last five contests. Easy to understand! Update - This line has largely stabilized, with 60 percent of sportsbooks at 22.5 and the balance at 23. Tulsa will score but will their defense keep Cincy down enough to cover large figure?
Betting Trend – 91% backing Tulsa
Doug’s VPID Take - Lean Tulsa
CFB – (145) EAST CAROLINA at (146) TEMPLE 7:30 ET ESPNN
Temple wins the AAC East with victory over East Carolina and they are drumming up a lot of support, lifted from -17.5 to -20.5. With the Owls having covered the spread 10 straight times and the Pirates on a 1-8 ATS slide, even at this price, it sure seems like Temple or nothing for football betting. Update - Just a slight uptick to -21 for Temple and if the defense keeps playing like they have coming off consecutive shutouts, the Owls get it done.
Betting Trend – 94% backing Temple
Doug’s VPID Take - Temple covers
CFB – (157) PURDUE at (158) INDIANA 12:00 ET ESPNU
Indiana needs a win to become bowl eligible and according to the line moves they will do so in resounding fashion. The Hoosiers have blown up from -15 to -20.5 against Purdue in the ‘Old Oaken Bucket’ battle. No doubt Indiana is better, but Purdue is 10-2 ATS on the Big Ten road and the Hoosiers still only average 29.5 PPG at home. Update - Similar to the two previous contests, Indiana is up a half-point at almost half the books checked to -21, with the rest staying where they were. Maybe the Hoosiers roll, but not 100% sold they do.
Betting Trend – 86% backing Indiana
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Purdue
CFB –(175) KENTUCKY at (176) LOUISVILLE 12:00 ET ESPN
As good as Louisville was this season, too many up and down efforts has them closing the season at 2-5-1 ATS. Enough of those betting football still have the rolling over rival Kentucky, as the Cardinals have flown from -23.5 to -26. Hard game to figure as both teams commit a lot of turnovers, which makes for more fluid situation. Update - Across the board Louisville is a 26.5 point favorite over Kentucky. Nevertheless, the public money in on the underdog, not certain what Cardinals team comes to play.
Betting Trend – 73% backing Kentucky
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Louisville
CFB – (179) NEVADA at (180) UNLV 4:00 ET W-ESPN
The Fremont Cannon is what these two Nevada based schools are after, both with 4-7 records. All the early action is on the home team, with UNLV up from -6 to -8.5. Though both has plenty of weaknesses, the difference is found with UNLV 14th nationally in rushing and Nevada the worst in the country stopping the run. Update - The range on this Silver State showdown goes from 8.5 to 9.5 points, with the home team the bettors choice.
Betting Trend – 81% backing UNLV
Doug’s VPID Take - UNLV covers
CFB – (195) WESTERN KENTUCKY at (196) MARSHALL 8:00 ET ESPNU
What a stunning reversal! Two years ago in this very same location, Marshall was a 23.5 point home favorite, now the Thundering Herd are a +24 point home underdog, having been pushed up two points. Maybe Marshall can cover, but porous defense has to show up and they are 7-26 ATS when they allow 6.5 or more total yards per play. Update - No movement on this matchup since Monday, with the market satisfied with adjustment.
Betting Trend – 88% backing Western Kentucky
Doug’s VPID Take - Lean Western Kentucky
CFB - (209) ARKANSAS STATE at (210) UL-LAFAYETTE 12:00 ET W-ESPN *New*
Arkansas State controls its own destiny to win Sun Belt title for fourth time in six years, but are expected to have to really work on the road, down from -8 to -5 at UL- Lafayette. The Ragin’ Cajuns are 7-3 ATS in recent games and the Red Wolves have rough assignment of having to close regular season with three consecutive road contests. This could be highly competitive clash, however, when Arkansas State get rolling, they are 15-4 ATS after four or more consecutive straight up wins.
Betting Trend – 55% backing Arkansas State
Doug’s VPID Take - Lean Arkansas State
CFB - (215) MICHIGAN at (216) OHIO STATE 12:00 ET ABC *New*
Without a doubt, this is the game of the day and football bettors are thinking old school Bo Schembechler vs. Woody Hayes type affair, with total lowered dramatically from 49.5 to 44.5. These Big Ten teams are both in the Top 4 in scoring defense at 13 or less points a game, nonetheless, these are two aggressive coaches, who understand their offenses have to generate points and this could be an overreaction.
Betting Trend – 74% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
Top 5 Public ATS Bet Percentages (Highest First) (26-33-1 ATS record) – Duke, Tulsa, Houston, Arizona State and San Diego State
Top 5 Public Totals Bet Percentages (Highest First) (28-32 record) – ECU /Temple UNDER, Western KY./Marshall OVER, Duke/Miami-FL OVER, Purdue/Ind. OVER and Boise St./A.F. OVER
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 276-259-3
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 175-147-2
Line Movement Direction Record – 471-435-5