Another college football weekend is upon us and they are dwindling swiftly. Here is a look at all the line moves past and present for this week. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (345-270 of late and recent 128-96 mark), when we post them, to see what we are thinking. See you back here Sunday for NFL.
CFB – (121) PITTSBURGH at (122) CLEMSON 3:30 ET ABC *New*
This ACC collision has the total sinking three points to 65.5. As to why, it must be thought the Clemson defense will slow the potent Pittsburgh offense, which it is certainly capable of doing. Because we know the country’s 126th ranked pass defense has no shot as stopping Deshawn Watson and the Tigers vertical offense if they go down the field, the Panthers will not contain them. Given Clemson is favored by -21, 42-21 sounds about right.
Betting Trend – 85% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
CFB – (123) CINCINNATI at (124) CENTRAL FLORIDA 12:00 ET ESPNU
Cincinnati at the minimum was thought to be a contender in the AAC East, but with a 1-4 record, that never happened. Central Florida changed head coach’s after winless 2015 and with one more win are bowl eligible. The Knights are where the action is, up two points to -12.5. Everyone is running on the Bearcats, expect UCF to do the same. Update – As the week progressed, a little all over the place on this contest, with Central Florida anywhere from -11.5 to -12.5. After closer inspection, the Vegas books are trending higher, with offshore towards the lower side.
Betting Trend – 52% backing Cincinnati
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Central Florida
CFB – (135) TULSA at (136) NAVY 12:00 ET CBSSN *New Total*
The winner of this ACC West battle places themselves in position to win the division. Navy was sent out as -1 point home favorite, yet by Monday morning they had been flipped to +1.5. While Tulsa can score and has been great on the road against the spread, Navy’s offensive style and 10-1 ATS home record will be the difference. Update – On Thursday, Navy was brought back around to a favorite, either -1 or -1.5, depending on the sportsbook. However, a massive alteration in the total, as it has tumbled from 74 to 69.5. This says could mean those taking the Middies see them controlling the ball and clock, which could lead to fewer points.
Betting Trend – 72% backing Navy, 84% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take - Navy covers, Lean Under
CFB – (165) KENTUCKY at (166) TENNESSEE 12:00 ET SECN
Kentucky had Georgia on the ropes and should have beaten them but could not close the deal. Despite three consecutive SEC losses, Tennessee can still win the SEC if Florida falters once. The Wildcats are much improved, yet the Vols have superior talent and have been pushed from -11 to -13 and should cover with Kentucky 3-11 ATS in November. Update – This number has forged ahead and stabilized at -14. However, based on betting trend, this could come down and if you prefer the Vols like yours truly, might want to wait for better number.
Betting Trend – 69% backing Kentucky
Doug’s VPID Take – Tennessee covers
CFB –(167) SOUTH CAROLINA at (168) FLORIDA 12:00 ET CBS
With Florida’s Luke Del Rio expected to be out again as Florida quarterback, football bettors confidence level of Gators offense is sinking and that is reflected in down two digits to -12. South Carolina has won three straight, all at home, but with total at 37, the Gamecocks are 13-4 ATS on the road when total is under 43. Update – This side action continues to erode like too many sunny days without rain in Florida in a gator pond. The Gators are now listed anywhere from -10 to -11 and with South Carolina gaining confidence, they could well cover double digits.
Betting Trend - 89% backing South Carolina
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean South Carolina
CFB – (183) CALIFORNIA at (184) WASHINGTON STATE 10:30 ET ESPN *New*
This might have caught a few by surprise seeing the total slip from 85.5 to 83. As to why, the reason Washington State is having such a good season is not because of the offense, rather the defense, which is permitting just 24.1 PPG (quite good by Wazzou standards) and holding opponent 13 percent below season averages for total yards. Coach Mike Leach teams might be 10-0 OVER after five or more consecutive straight up wins, however, the average total score of those games 74.4 PPG.
Betting Trend – 79% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
CFB – (199) BAYLOR at (200) OKLAHOMA 12:00 ET ABC/ESPN2 *New* (side & total)
Quite a bit to take in here about Oklahoma rising from -14 to -17.5 and the total heading south from 74 to 69.5. The most obvious aspect enough bettors are thinking Baylor is finished and will not compete and it’s offense has derailed. That might be true, still the Bears have been more than competitive in Norman with a 8-1 ATS record. Look for Baylor to play with more purpose and stay under the number, but the total at this price is tricky call.
Betting Trend – 77% backing Oklahoma and 51% on Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Baylor covers, slight lean Over
CFB – (205) VANDERBILT at (206) MISSOURI 3:30 ET SECN
Somebody sees something here that is not obvious. Missouri has no wins or covers in last five games yet was beefed up from -1 to -3.5 over Vanderbilt. While the Commodores has offensive limitations, they have scored against weak defenses like the Tigers. Being able to catch the half point hook has us tailing Vandy. Update – No change all week, as the marketplace is content. I disagree and so does the general betting public.
Betting Trend - 88% backing Vanderbilt
Doug’s VPID Take – Vanderbilt covers
CFB – (209) MICHIGAN at (210) IOWA 8:00 ET ABC
The release of Michigan at -17.5 was not been enough for Big Ten bettors, with Wolverines all the way to -21.5. While Iowa certainly would appear tempting at home, they have limited offense resources which the Wolverines can shutoff and the Hawkeyes run defense is nothing close to the past. Iowa is on 0-7 ATS conference spiral at home. Update – Another game where the number went up and settled in. Lots of sharp bettors on Iowa thinking they rise to occasion, myself, Michigan can take away anything the Hawkeyes want to do offensively and run the ball down their throats.
Betting Trend - 87% backing Michigan
Doug’s VPID Take - Michigan covers
Top 5 Public ATS Bet Percentages (Highest First) (22-28 ATS record) – San Diego State, Colorado, Wyoming, South Carolina and Virginia Tech
Top 5 Public Totals Bet Percentages (Highest First) (24-26 record) – Army /Notre Dame OVER, W.F./Louis. OVER, Ohio St./Maryl. OVER, Mich/Iowa OVER and Pitt./Clemson OVER
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 254-244-2
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 166-138-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 430-399-3