College Football Line Moves and Betting Trends for Oct.11th

October 11, 2016

It is Tuesday and for line moves, we have surveyed the landscape in college football and found these games of interest. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (284-224 of late and recent 69-50 mark), when we post them, to see what we are thinking. See you back tomorrow for NFL.

CFB –Friday- (107) DUKE at (108) LOUISVILLE  7:00 ET ESPN

With Louisville playing for first time since Clemson loss, the general consensus is Duke will be nothing more than a speed bump for the Cardinals and they have flown from -31 to -35. With QB Lamar Jackson’s talent, if Louisville comes to play, they can name final score. Of note, Bobby Petrino coached teams are 10-0 ATS at home when the total is 62 or higher.

Betting Trend – 73% backing Louisville

CFB – (119) BOWLING GREEN at (120) TOLEDO 3:30 ET  W-ESPN

Only way to describe this line movement is – oddsmakers error – as Toledo opened as -24 and within hours was -31. This is going to be Bowling Green’s worse team in six years, while Toledo is still a MAC power. Another game of favorite’s mindset and you have to take a stab on how the Rockets might feel.

Betting Trend – 50-50 Split

CFB – (147) NEBRASKA at (148) INDIANA 3:30 ET  ABC/ESPN2

I was a trifle surprised to see Nebraska fall from -7 to -4 at Indiana. I completely understand the Hoosiers beat Michigan State and hung with Ohio State into the fourth quarter and are improved, yet wonder if there is more to Huskers QB Tommy Armstrong Jr.’s injured ankle. If Cornhuskers go back up, that will answer question.

Betting Trend – 53% backing Nebraska

CFB –(155) WEST VIRGINIA at (156) TEXAS TECH 12:00 ET  FS1

www.vegasproinsidersdaily.com		With Texas Tech a prolific offensive team which does not play a lick of defense, the Red Raiders were flipped from -1 to +1.5 against West Virginia. Having watched the Mountaineers a few times already, they are not as good as Texas Tech offensively, but better on defense. Wonder about West Virginia playing first true road game.

Betting Trend – 56% backing West Virginia

CFB – (169) UTSA at (170) RICE 7:00 ET  BEIN-SP

With UTSA off big upset of Southern Miss and Rice having its worst team in years at 0-5, this C-USA conflict jumped from a Pick to -3 in favor of the Roadrunners.  UTSA might be worth a look being 5-3 ATS as a road favorite and is 12-6 ATS off a SU win. The visitor is also in 24-5 ATS positive system.

Betting Trend – 84% backing UTSA

CFB – (175) ALABAMA at (176) TENNESSEE  3:30 ET CBS

Rightfully so, bettors cannot get enough of Alabama right now and while it is a given Tennessee has backdoor cover possibilities with how they play, the Crimson Tide are different. Bama was elevated two points to -12.5 in Knoxville and if they run the ball as expected, the Vols might have a tough time. Only caveat is the Tide 3-11 ATS when the total is between 56.5 and 63.

Betting Trend – 61% backing Alabama

CFB – (205) UTAH at (206) OREGON STATE 4:00 ET PAC-12N

Oregon State has shown general improvement in 2016 and with Utah a still shaky road favorite, the Beavers have gnawed into sportsbooks release and is down four points to +9. While Oregon State’s recent history off a victory is not great, I’d wait to see if number goes back to +10 and grab the Beavers.

Betting Trend – 61% backing Oregon State 

 

Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 224-195-2

Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 152-120-1

Line Movement Direction Record – 380-338-3

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