We have reached the midpoint of August and today is quite hectic for line moves. Besides these four encounters, we have falling totals on the Brewers/Cubs nightcap and the splendid pitching matchup between Danny Duffy and Justin Verlander. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (187-144, 56.4% of late, including 37-22 run) to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
MLB – (953) L.A. DODGERS at (954) PHILADELPHIA 7:05 ET SNLA, CSN-P
Los Angeles hits the road with its offense still as hot as fresh tar at 5.7 runs per contest in their last seven games, which has led to 6-1 OVER mark. Surprisingly, the Philadelphia offense has been even better at 6.0 RPG in the same time span, leading to the Phillies being 7-0 OVER. Those betting baseball do not feel either the Dodgers Kenta Maeda (11.7, 3.31 ERA) or the Phils Vince Velasquez (8-4, 3.94) is going slow either offense enough and they raised the total from 8 to 8.5. Here is another reason to agree with this line movement, when the total is 8.5 to 10 and a NL home team has .390 or lower slugging percentage and faces a NL starting pitcher with WHIP of 1.25 or lower (Maeda), with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.35 to 1.45 on the season, the OVER is 38-10 the past 19 years.
Betting Trend – 78% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
MLB – (959) WASHINGTON at (960) COLORADO 8:40 ET MASN2, RTRM
Washington escaped with a 5-4 win on Monday at Coors Field in the opener, but those placing bets on baseball are not so sure this will happen again. The Nationals opened as -140 road favorites behind Gio Gonzalez (8-9, 4.24) and have tumbled 15 cents to -125. There is not an easy explanation for this given the Colorado has lost eight of nine and are 14-20 versus left-handed starters this campaign. The Rockies have won eight of Chad Bettis (10-6, 5.27) 10 home starts, which is reason to believe this is possible. Nonetheless, the Nats are 31-12 as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season and get the call.
Betting Trend – 85% backing Washington
Doug’s VPID Take – Washington wins
MLB – (965) TORONTO at (966) N.Y. YANKEES 7:05 ET RSN, YES
The Yankees might have waved the white flag in trading off valuable commodities for the future, but they have not completely given up on 2016, being just five back in the wild card race. One of the clubs they are chasing is Toronto and they took series opener last night and there is enough support from bettors to force them from a +110 underdog to a Pick (-105) for tonight. Marco Estrada (7-5, 2.95) is more reliable than Michael Pineda (6-10, 5.07) and has won four straight road decisions. Nonetheless, there is a sense about New York at this moment and they are 27-13 after a game with a combined score of four runs or less the last two seasons.
Betting Trend – 72% backing New York
Doug’s VPID Take - Lean New York
MLB – (981) ST. LOUIS at (982) HOUSTON 8:10 ET FSMW, RTSW
These former division rivals collide now in interleague action and the sportsbooks have moved Houston out from -140 to -155. The Astros will send Dallas Keuchel (7-11, 4.56) to the mound and he is and his teammates are 18-4 at home if coming off a loss. St. Louis is felling pretty spry after two come from behind wins at Wrigley Field and is 8-3 as a road underdog of +125 to +175 this season. Let’s fly with the Astros, who are 11-2 after a beatdown by four or more runs.
Betting Trend – 84% backing Houston
Doug’s VPID Take – Houston wins
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 157-147-1
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 131-108-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 281-263-2