Based on the comments last Sunday made by College Football Playoff committee members concerning Louisville, as presumed, they do not pay much attention to betting college football.
Louisville head coach Bobby Petrino this past Sunday talked about taking no joy in leaving his starters in longer than we wanted in order to beat Boston College 52-7, as 25-point road favorites, with his team positioned at No.7 in the first CFP poll. Some committee members countered with victories by large scores was less important than strength of schedule.
With Louisville not having a signature game to grab people’s attention left, like this week facing Wake Forest and the college football odds are at A+ rated Bookmaker having them as 34.5-point favorites, what do they do other than try and crush the Demon Deacons and hope one of the five teams ahead of them falters?
Lost in Petrino’s argument is one set of facts that were explained. The Cardinals have set a standard with dazzling offense, which has scored over 50 points per game and a stingy defense which allows 21.2 PPG. Yet, against Duke as five-touchdown favorite, they won 24-14 and versus Virginia (2-7 SU), had to come from behind to win 32-25 as 32-point faves, in two really low energy performances.
No team is going to play at a top level every single week, but if Cardinals have any hopes of reaching the Final 4, when not playing the first week of December, they have to make such a strong impression they cannot be overlooked.
Wake Forest is by no means a great team, but at 6-3 are having a good year and defensively rank No.7 in the country in yards per point allowed at 20.0 (tied with Clemson and ahead of Alabama). Petrino should using this in the media sell the Demon Deacons and unleash QB Lamar Jackson and the offense to do damage.
For the Demon Deacons to beat the sportsbooks odds, this is what they have to do. Wake Forest only averages 21.3 PPG. Thus, with what Louisville permits, they have to reach season average. What they do best is run the ball at 4.0 yards a carry. If they can match season norm of 41 attempts per game and ring up at least 20 points, this is great starting point.
On defense, Wake has to prevent big plays, since it is a given Louisville will move the ball. Duke allowed 469 yards, but only 24 points and the Deacons are far better defensively.