We have our first look at line moves in the NFL and one we omitted was Cleveland and Philadelphia on the side and total, because the Sam Bradford trade made that happen. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (214-172 of late), when posted, to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
NFL – Thursday – (451) CAROLONA at (452) DENVER 8:30 ET NBC (side and total)
Denver was sent out as -1 point home favorite but once Mark Sanchez was signed by the Broncos, almost immediately they went to +3 and total shrunk from 43.5 to 41.5. Tells you what bettors think of Sanchez after Trevor Siemian beat him out and line did not change. Total could go either way but huge quarterback differential.
Betting Trend – 69% backing Carolina and 55% on Under
NFL – (459) CINCINNATI at (460) N.Y. JETS 1:00 ET CBS
This noteworthy AFC contest opened as a Pick and since Cincinnati, the road team is up to -2.5. This is a large move on an away team. What bettors see is a more complete team in the Bengals, arguably the best roster in the NFL. While the Jets certainly have ability, there is wonderment about Ryan Fitzpatrick coming off career year and does he have next gear to lift New York ever higher? Cincy is on 11-2 ATS run on the road and looks strong.
Betting Trend – 75% backing Cincinnati
NFL – (469) GREEN BAY at (470) JACKSONVILLE 1:00 ET FOX
Green Bay was released as four-point favorite at Jacksonville and has been steadily climbing to -5.5 in the past two weeks. The Jaguars have largely looked the same in the preseason and the Packers while not showing much are being given the benefit of the doubt they are still an elite NFC club. Would not recommend playing Green Bay at higher price but Jacksonville being 5-12-1 ATS as home underdog and 1-11 ATS versus the NFC matters.
Betting Trend – 83% backing Green Bay
NFL – (471) MIAMI at (472) SEATTLE 4:05 ET CBS (side and total)
Evidently the Seattle defense is going to lock down new Miami pass offense which places premium on quarterback throwing ball quickly and the Seahawks will be running the ball effectively to shorten the game. Seattle has blown up from -7.5 to -10.5 and the total has sunk from 49 to 44. That is a lot of points for the Seahawks to be surrendering in Week 1, especially since the Dolphins are 26-13-2 ATS a non-division road underdog since 2006. Seattle is 18-8 OVER out of conference.
Betting Trend – 52% backing Seattle and 78% on Under
NFL – Monday – (481) LOS ANGELES at (482) SAN FRANCISCO 10:20 ET ESPN
Gosh, hard to believe the total in this game fell from 46 to 44 considering the Rams were 29th in scoring last year and the 49ers were 32nd and the starting quarterbacks are expected to be Case Keenum and Blaine Gabbert. Or maybe it is no surprise at all since St.L/L.A. was 12-4 UNDER last year and San Francisco is 6-0 UNDER at home against division foes the past two years.
Betting Trend – 97% backing Under
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 180-164-2
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 141-113-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 313-285-3