It is back to diamond today for line moves and we have some very strong moves that are a little potentially hard to swallow. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (212-176) to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.

MLB – (907) ARIZONA at (908) N.Y. METS  7:10 ET  FSAZ, SNY

www.vegasproinsidersdaily.com		After meandering most of the season, Patrick Corbin (10-11, 4.25 ERA) has found a groove and enters tonight in the Big Apple on a string of 15 1/3 scoreless innings, in winning his past two starts. Bettors look at Tom Milone (1-2, 7.91) for the Mets, who has not pitched in the bigs since May 21st with a sprained knee and sent the Diamondbacks slithering from -145 to -165. Have to agree.

Betting Trend – 89% backing Arizona

Doug’s VPID - Arizona wins

MLB – (909) CHIC. CUBS at (910) CINCINNATI  7:10 ET  WGN, FSOH

It does not take Aaron Judge distance to hit the ball out of Great American Ballpark. With these two NL Central rivals averaging scoring 13.2 RPG in their last seven contests, evidently John Lackey (10-9, 4.67) and Homer Bailey (4-6, 8.44) do not stand a chance and the total is exploded from 10 to 11. Lackey has been better than Bailey, especially since the All-Star break. In truth, I could see the Cubs winning 7-4, and will have a slight lean with Chicago at 14-4 OVER vs. a starting pitcher whose lasts less than five innings per start the last two seasons.

Betting Trend - 97% backing Over

Doug’s VPID TakeSlight lean Over

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MLB – (917) BOSTON at (918) CLEVELAND  7:10 ET  NESN, STO

I was perplexed to see this total in AL action sink from 9 to 8.5. Both offenses have been ringing up 5.5 or more RPG of late and each starting pitchers have been troubling in exact situations. Boston’s Doug Fister (2-6, 5.56) struggles in the traveling gray’s with a 7.27 ERA on the road. Cleveland’s Carlos Carrasco (12-5, 3.76) has thrown much better in his past two outings after a bumpy stretch, yet has a 4.80 ERA at home and against the Red Sox checks in at an unsightly 6.43. With Carrasco 25-11 OVER as a home favorite the last few years, I’ll grab the OVER.

Betting Trend – 64% backing Over

Doug’s VPID TakePlay Over

MLB – (925) TEXAS at (926) L.A.A. ANGELS  10:05 ET ESPN

It is incredible the Angels are in the wild card chase, considering all their injuries to their pitchers, Mike Trout out for an extended period and sending out Ricky Nolasco (5-12, 5.16) every five games. Texas is also in this jumbled AL wild card race and beat the Halos 5-3 last evening to draw even closer. The Rangers are not loaded with pitching either and will start Tyson Ross (3-2), he of the 7.02 ERA. Very hard to imagine those betting baseball could shove Anaheim from -130 to -150, but it happened. These are two bet against pitchers and if both pitch to form, at least the Angels have better bullpen.

Betting Trend – 77% backing L.A.A. Angels

Doug’s VPID TakeLean L.A.A. Angels

 

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 162-181-10 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 115-91-4 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 269-238-14 ATS

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www.vegasproinsidersdaily.com		As per usual, the number of betting choices for a Monday are reduced during the hardball season, both for the money line and baseball totals. Fear not, we just have to dig deeper for answers.

It turns out, we have only nine games to choose from and two are particularly challenging, as the Chicago White Sox and Minnesota are playing doubleheader. While certainly not true every time, however the first game plays out, the second contest tends to be the opposite. On occasion you might have a great pitching matchup in the opener and two hurlers who are spot starters in the second tilt, which might help for making MLB picks, nonetheless, that does not occur frequently and this is not happening in the Twin Cities later today.

One aspect we do know, I have righted the ship over the weekend after a bumpy weekday against the MLB odds and lifted record to 22-16 against the sportsbooks. Here is what I am looking at tonight.

Hoping Vanna White and Fate Steer Selection in Right Direction

Atlanta’s Mike Foltynewicz (4.75 ERA) has been shelled in his past two starts after being effective most of the year.

 

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Most normal NFL football fans do not think about games involving the two conferences unless it is the Super Bowl. Those of us seeking a betting edge are keenly aware about this week after week.

There are several generic or over time assumptions that are still floating around that have less validity today. Among them are flat spots for teams playing nonconference contests as a ‘sandwich’ game, with division tilts on either side of this ballgame. In theory, this makes sense, as does the fact this could be a higher scoring affair because the stakes are lower compared to a division or conference clash that carries more weight for tie-breaker situations. However, those setting the NFL odds knew about this a long time ago and have reworked the numbers to fit public perception and consumption.

www.vegasproinsidersdaily.com		In the past three years, other than team isolation spots for NFL picks, the competition has been close both straight up and against the spread. Here is who has enjoyed the SU edge.

 

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For line moves, we have a couple of MLB contests on Friday and NFL preseason football scattered all over the weekend. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (209-173) to see what we are thinking. See you back here Tuesday.

MLB – (911) PHILADELPHIA at (912) SAN FRANCISCO  10:15 ET  CSP, CSBA

Without question, this is not the marquee game of the day, yet the flow of money towards San Francisco is extremely one-sided, moving them from -125 to -160, in spite of Matt Moore (3-12, 5.71 ERA) being the Giants starting pitcher. As bad as Moore has been, the Phillies Zach Eflin (1-4, 5.76) is equally as awful and Philadelphia is almost tragic 19-45 on the road. This has the makings of a hold your nose selection.

Betting Trend – 95% backing San Francisco

Doug’s VPID - Lean San Francisco

MLB – (917) N.Y. YANKEES at (918) BOSTON  7:10 ET  YES, NESN

These clubs switch locations and move over to Bean-Town with Boston trying to win this series again and extend lead. The focus is from the baseball bettors perspective is on the total, up from 9 to 9.5. I’m not having any of it with a pair of left-handers starting, Jordan Montgomery (3.94 ERA) for New York and Drew Pomeranz (3.39) for Boston. Why I prefer the UNDER in this contest is because both offenses do not as well versus lefties, scoring about 10 percent less and cannot get over the Red Sox are 17-7 UNDER at Fenway when the total is 9 or 9.5.

Betting Trend - 74% backing Over

Doug’s VPID TakePlay Over

NFLX – (407) MINNESOTA at (408) SEATTLE  10:10 ET  NFLN

www.vegasproinsidersdaily.com		Football is a funny game, with Seattle among the favorites to win the NFC and after crushing the L.A. Chargers (that is still sinking in) by 31 point last week in an exhibition game, they moved to the favorite in the conference to reach the Super Bowl and were elevated from -3 to -4 over Minnesota. While I comprehend what bettors think, the Vikings are 9-1 ATS in August football the last three years and favorites like the Seahawks after a win by 14 or more points, against opponent after scoring three points or less in the first half of last game are 4-23 ATS.

Betting Trend – 73% backing Seattle

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Minnesota

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NFLX – Saturday – (411) KANSAS CITY at (412) CINCINNATI  7:00 ET

Kansas City put in a rather desultory performance in losing to San Francisco last week 27-17, and was outgained by 247 yards. With Cincinnati winning by 11 in Week 1, the money is follow the Chiefs, who have been flipped from +2 to -2.5. While I understand the logic, K.C. like Dallas has long placed little value on preseason game outcomes, instead trying to have best roster possible and is 0-7 ATS away off a home loss by 10 or more points.

Betting Trend – 84% backing Kansas City

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Cincinnati

NFLX – Saturday – (421) DENVER at (422) SAN FRANCISCO  10:00 ET  NFLN

One has to believe new head coach Kyle Shanahan wants to change the culture of San Francisco and knows the roster will take longer. That is why he, like many new coaches want to win now, to help set the right tenor for when the regular season starts. Evidently bettors agree and have taken the 49ers from -1 to -2.5. One aspect I worry about, Denver also has a new coach in Vance Joseph and he has the superior squad and he wants to win also to establish himself and the Broncos are 12-3 ATS as a road underdog of three points or less.

Betting Trend – 82% backing San Francisco

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Broncos

NFLX – Sunday – (427) ATLANTA at (428) PITTSBURGH  4:00 ET  NFLN

Though Pittsburgh only had 226 yards of offense at the New York Giants, that was enough to win 20-12. That did not provide football bettors with enough satisfaction and they changed the Steelers from -2 to +2.5 point underdogs versus visiting Atlanta. Place me in agreement with the line movement with Pitt 0-8 ATS off an upset win as a road underdog.

Betting Trend – 94% backing Atlanta

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Atlanta

 

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 160-181-10 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 113-89-4 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 265-236-14 ATS

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Is Labor Day weekend really in two weeks, where did the summer go right? Well you know it is getting closer with the pennant races really heating up and those of us doing baseball totals grinding away.

As anyone who has ever done this for an extended period of time, the daily grind of studying the MLB odds is both a curse and a blessing, in part because it is every day, yet when our attention turns more to football, part of us still loves looking over those numbers and trying to beat the sportsbooks.

Last night if you followed along, we swept the board against those books and raised our record to 17-11 for MLB picks. Here is what I have for Friday.

Pitching Rules in Bean-Town

www.vegasproinsidersdaily.com		The New York Yankees offense looked more like it had been all season in sweeping their city rivals the Mets, averaging a hair over five runs a game. Boston’s offense has also been like boiling water on the stove in scoring 6.1 runs a contest in their last seven. With the total listed at nine, we have a pair of left-handers starting, Jordan Montgomery (3.94 ERA) for New York and Drew Pomeranz (3.39) for Boston.

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2017 Sun Belt Conference Football Betting Preview

August 17, 2017

Marc Lawrence of Playbook.com has 2017 Sun Belt Conference Football Betting Preview Odds Are On the surface the Sun Belt appears to be a three-horse race in 2017, according to 5 Dimes.com. Here are their odds to win the conference title this season – Appalachian State +130 Arkansas State +325 Troy +340 Georgia Southern +1400 UL Lafayette [...]

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Compelling Line Moves and Free Picks for Aug. 16-17

August 16, 2017

Let’s get to it on a very busy Wednesday! With business to attend to tomorrow, I will include the present line moves for the NFL on Thursday in today’s article. along with baseball this evening. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (205-172) to see what we are thinking. [...]

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Wednesday’s Trio of Baseball Totals Picks

August 16, 2017

It is time to look at some midweek baseball totals action. We have quite a few day games and one in particular in the National League looks inviting as does a couple of contests under the lights. It was a tough day for me against MLB odds on totals and I will do everything I [...]

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Compelling Line Moves and Free Picks for Aug. 15th

August 15, 2017

It is back to baseball for a couple days on line moves and we are more than alright with that. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (205-168) to see what we are thinking. See you back here Wednesday. MLB – (951) SAN FRANCISCO at (952) MIAMI 7:10 ET [...]

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Time to Topple the Sportsbooks Baseball Totals on Tuesday

August 15, 2017

The Cubs went to four outfields last night to stop Joey Votto of Cincinnati. It did not work as he doubled any way. I will attempt to do better than that against the baseball totals for a Tuesday. Last night I was 1-1-1 with my third Push in two days, however, the approach I’m taking [...]

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