The last weekend of October for college football approaches and have all the early line moves to get you started along with the betting trends. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (311-249 of late and recent 96-75 mark), when we post them, to see what we are thinking. See you back here Thursday.
CFB –Thursday- (105) AKRON at (106) BUFFALO U. 7:30 ET W-ESPN
With Buffalo having a rough year at 1-6 (2-5 ATS) and being outscored by 18.5 PPG, bettors have little faith in the Bulls and elevated them from +14.5 to +17.5 at home against Akron. While this seems like a lot of point on the Zips, I have system going against Buffalo that is 26-6 ATS, where teams like them lose by 25.5 PPG on average.
Betting Trend – 67% backing Akron
Though Miami-Fl. is slumping at 0-3 SU & ATS, more than enough people are convinced Notre Dame is much worse and have taken the Hurricanes from +1 to -2.5 at South Bend. The feeling is the Irish defense cannot stop anyone, coach Brian Kelly has lost this group and they lack senior leadership to take charge. However, the switch brings out the Irish as 5-2 ATS as home dogs.
Betting Trend – 56% backing Miami-FL
This was predictable, Ohio State turbo-charged four points to -25.5 being at home and coming off upset at Penn State. This could very well happen if the Buckeyes bring A-game, however, Northwestern is 21-8 ATS as Big Ten road underdog since 2008 and could keep this closer than most would think.
Betting Trend – 70% backing Ohio State
With Florida looking as the stronger squad in this pass the cocktail SEC neutral field clash, the Gators are up two points to -7.5. The concerns are the Georgia offense, which too often plays like a bad Bloody Mary and defense, which ranks 106th in the country in yards per points allowed. The half point hook is a concern.
Betting Trend – 69% backing Georgia
The Auburn ground game is now steamrolling opponents at over 300 YPG, which is sensational, when you realize they only had 87 yards against Clemson. With Mississippi surrendering 5.2 YPC, it is not surprising to see Auburn altered from -2 to -4, even at Oxford. The Tigers are 9-1 ATS after a SEC home victory and could roll.
Betting Trend – 95% backing Auburn
The largest early line move was this C-USA encounter, with Louisiana Tech opening at -23.5 and blown up to -28. Rice is a sickly 3-13 ATS on the road versus teams averaging 450 or more YPG and is 12-25 ATS away if they have a winning record. My concern is how badly do the Bulldogs want to squash the Owls.
Betting Trend – 92% backing Louisiana Tech
Spartans fans have to be pensive about this matchup, knowing Michigan could bring the whipping stick and destroy their team with the talent difference and seeking redemption, which you know Jim Harbaugh cares about. The Wolverines have been taken from -20.5 to -23 and that might not be enough. Sparty is 10-22 ATS off a conference loss as a favorite.
Betting Trend – 81% backing Michigan
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 239-221-2
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 159-127-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 404-369-3