Interesting day in baseball, as three of the line moves involve games you would not think bettors would care much about. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (193-153 of late) to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
It is understandable why Colorado would open as a -135 road favorite at Milwaukee and it is also why those betting baseball might be inclined to lower the Rockies to -120 or less. It begins with Jon Gray (8-6, 4.69) having an ERA over 13 in last three starts, with little command of any of his tosses. In addition, though Chase Anderson pitched only two-thirds of inning in last start after being hit in knee with batted ball and followed that up with ineffective relief performance (2 runs, 3 hits, 2 innings), he is 3-0 with a 2.53 ERA in his previous four starts. Take a look at the Brew Crew with Gray and the Rocks 2-9 when the money line is -100 to -150 the last two seasons.
Betting Trend – 53% backing Colorado
Doug’s VPID Take – Miami covers
Another game involving not so important NL teams is in the desert tonight. Last night’s opener had more blown leads than singers trying to hit high notes on MTV Live. Arizona had walk-off 9-8 victory and started out as -155 favorites, but then baseball bettors noticed Archie Bradley (4-8, 5.04) was pitching for D-Backs and the money has fallen to under -130. Atlanta sends out Rob Whalen (1-2, 5.73), which invokes a collective yawn. Personally, I would pass on the side and look at the total of 9.5 with two below averages starters, with the same true of the bullpens and take the OVER.
Betting Trend – 87% backing Arizona (88% on Over)
Doug’s VPID Take – Pass Side, Play Over
This would be way more fun if it was Madison Bumgarner (12-7, 2.25) vs. Clayton Kershaw, but we cannot have everything. Instead, Kenta Maeda (12-7, 3.29) is the starter in this very important series. The total began at 7 and has since slipped to 6.5 and is should be noted Mad Bum is 14-8 UNDER against San Francisco’s hated rival. Maeda has thrown as L.A. expected him to and the biggest reason he is 12-11 OVER this year is the Dodgers have scored five or more times in 11 of his outings. Cannot imagine that much offense and the Dodgers are 13-3 UNDER in home games against left-handed starters this season.
Betting Trend – 63% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
In interleague action, an eyebrow lifter on the total. Yordano Ventura (8-9, 4.46) of Kansas City clashes with Andrew Cashner (4-9, 4.92) of Miami and the total has dipped from 8 to 7.5. While Ventura has 2.25 ERA in last three outings, he still owns a 4.54 road ERA. Why the Marlins traded for Cashner is a great question and he has a sterling 7.20 ERA in past trio of starts. With the Fish 11-3 OVER against the AL and the red-hot Royals 11-3 OVER after allowing four runs or less in four straight games, play the higher score.
Betting Trend – 59% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 161-150-1
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 133-113-1
Line Movement Direction Record – 289-270-2