For line moves, we have the full regalia, covering the NBA, college basketball and of the NFL championship games. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks when we post them, to see what we are thinking. See you back here Tuesday.
Photo by Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
After a 0-5 road trip, Charlotte was pleased to be back home and pounded Portland by 22 on Wednesday. Take this and Toronto coming off ugly loss at improving Philadelphia, the Hornets have buzzed from a Pick to -1.5. However, don’t be shocked if the Raptors bounce back and teams like Charlotte, revenging a home loss against opponent off a road loss against a division rival, with the line is +3 to -3, are only 5-30 ATS. The total is also on the move from 216.5 to 215, but we are little less sure about that, with Toronto’s Over tendencies and Charlotte’s Under tendencies.
Betting Trend – 52% backing Toronto and 59% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Toronto covers, Lean Under
This is a betting trend combo pack on Memphis. The Grizzlies have been sent two points higher to -8.5 and because their average home game only sees 190.8 PPG, the total has fallen like ‘El Chopo’ from 203 to 199. Definitely preferred the original number on Grizz, even with the Kings 1-9 ATS after playing a game as favorite this season.
Betting Trend – 91% backing Memphis and 82% on Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Memphis and Under
Louisville did not need Quentin Snyder at home Clemson on Thursday, but they will at Florida State. The Seminoles can match the Cardinals in size and quickness and have 11 players in the rotation, and they almost always have an answer for the opposing team. Expect a lot of turnovers and impressive dunks and a Florida State win and cover.
Anticipated Line – Florida State -1 to +1
Doug’s VPID Take – Florida State covers (at these numbers)
South Carolina will do everything in their power to not allow Kentucky to get into transition, because chances are they would get run over. Instead, the Gamecocks will try and make this half court contest, make the Wildcats offense earn every basket with their stingy defense and milk the clock on each possession to force the ‘Cats to play defense and get impatient.
Anticipated Line – Kentucky by 10 to 12 points
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean South Carolina
UCLA is an uncommon offensive team. They can score from anywhere in their offensive zone, their sharing of the basketball and passing reminds one of pinball machine as to how quick it is. Coach Sean Miller has down a superb job not being to use all his resources and Arizona’s best chance to win and cover is to do their best they can on defense and make the Bruins still suspect defense scramble to guard, just like Oregon did in their only setback.
Anticipated Line – UCLA by 2 to 4 points
Doug’s VPID Take – UCLA covers
The last several years, everyone is impressed with Press Virginia’s defense and when we start getting into the heart of the Big 12 season and opposing teams start figuring the Mountaineers out they start to slide. West Virginia will force turnovers, but if Kansas State can keep them to one or less out of every six possessions, they beat the ‘Teers. If not, West Virginia grinds out a victory.
Anticipated Line – West Virginia by 1 to 3 points
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean West Virginia
The loss of Pau Gasol will seemingly matter more in the long run than short term, especially in the first Saturday prime time game on ABC. Gasol’s skill set was a great match for San Antonio, who is 17-3 and 13-6-1 ATS on the road. In typical LeBron James fashion since he Miami days, his teams either cover the spread frequently or not at all and in 2017 the Cavaliers are 2-7 ATS. This should beat watching Miami and Duke on ESPN.
Anticipated Line – San Antonio by Pick to 2 points
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Cleveland
Atlanta was sent out as a -4 betting favorite over Green Bay and by Tuesday was bumped up to -5. The thinking of course is despite how great Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense has been, the Packers depleted defense, especially the secondary, will not be able to contain Matt Ryan and all the offensive weapons the Falcons have. While Rodgers and Green Bay is a fascinating story, hard to find fault with this line of thinking unless the Dirty Birds start turning the ball over, which appears unlikely since they have one turnover in last five games.
The total has been bouncing around after opening at 60. It was surprising to see the total down to 59 at most sportsbooks Monday morning considering the last game was 33-32 shootout. However, 24 hours later the number was elevated to 61, which at least in theory makes sense.
Looking at the circumstances closer, Atlanta is 14-2-1 OVER this season, 9-0 OVER at the Georgia Dome and 10-0 OVER as a favorite, all rather impressive numbers. In reviewing Green Bay’s numbers, we find similar circumstances, just over a longer stretch of time. The Packers are 19-5 OVER after four or more consecutive wins against the spread and 11-3 OVER off two or more consecutive OVER’s. Update – With Atlanta relatively healthy and Green Bay not having several wide receivers practicing besides Jordy Nelson, Atlanta has been moved up to -5.5. The highest-ever NFL title game total has also been nudged to 60.5.
Betting Trend – 57% backing Green Bay and 56% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Green Bay, Play Over
Comparatively speaking, the AFC championship has not had as much noise. The total was released at 50 and about half the sportsbooks checked were at 50.5 or 51, with the balance of them still at the same starting point. Looking deeper into the wagers placed in the first part of the week, it is virtually dead even, with bets placed equally on the OVER and UNDER. It will be very intriguing to follow this since both teams have been playing very good defense in assembling their lengthy winning streaks, which has us thinking a lower score. This is backed up with Pittsburgh being 15-4 UNDER as a road club and 6-0 UNDER away off a road victory.
As far as the games itself against the spread, New England was listed at -6. Again when reviewing the books, the majority were holding steady and the rest has moved the Steelers down to +5.5. The thought process since the beginning of the season has been if there was one AFC team which could derail the Patriots from making the Super Bowl it was Pittsburgh. What was not counted on from the start was how good the New England defense would become, as they have retooled themselves to have more speed. While some might complain the Pats have only played six games versus playoff teams, if the point spread is the great equalizer, than 14-3 ATS is awfully impressive. Update – Betting markets have remained solid with New England at -6 and total depending on the sportsbook at 50.5 or 51.
Betting Trend – 58% backing New England and 51% on Under
Doug’s VPID Take - Leans on New England and Under
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 20-15 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 8-12 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 26-29 ATS