With a smaller MLB schedule and nearly half of the games played during the day, we found three contests for line moves tonight and come right back with another CFL matchup. We were going to drop in a WNBA encounter in, but the line movement had to do with an injury, not bettors really liking one side.  Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (181-133), to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.

MLB – (957) ATLANTA at (958) L.A. DODGERS  10:10 ET  FSSE, SNLA

With Brandon McCarthy (6-3, 3.38 ERA) scuffling a bit of late and Los Angeles Dodgers offense averaging 5.4 RPG at home, the total in this contest has jumped from 8 to 8.5. The Dodgers are playing other-worldly baseball, winning 11 in row to build a 31-4 record of late. I actually prefer the original total since McCarthy has 2.88 ERA at Dodger Stadium in 2017 and Atlanta was just stymied by Cubs pitching, scoring six times in being swept in three-game series.

Betting Trend – 61% backing Over

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Under

MLB – (963) TEXAS at (964) BALTIMORE  7:05 ET  FSSW, MASN

www.vegasproinsidersdaily.com		Baltimore has drilled Texas like it’s an oil well in taking the first three games of the series by a combined 25-4 tally. Those betting baseball are more on board with how the teams are presently playing than with on what looks like a starting pitching mismatch. The Rangers opened as -115 favorites behind Cole Hamels (4-0. 3.05), who has not allowed a run in 21 consecutive innings, but they have been flipped to +102 underdogs and will see Wade Miley (4-8, 5.40) take the ball. Hamels is still a legitimate stopper and if Texas is going to break out of its slump, Miley should be the perfect pitcher to do so against.

Betting Trend – 63% backing Baltimore

Doug’s VPID TakeTexas wins

MLB – (967) N.Y. YANKEES at (968) SEATTLE  10:10 ET  YES, RTNW

A 5-1 road trip has propelled Seattle into second place in the AL West and right back into the thick of the wild card race. Now back home where the Mariners are a respectable 27-22, they are a somewhat surprising growing home underdog from +102 to +120 to the New York Yankees. While we agree Felix Hernandez (5-3, 4.20) no longer deserves the title as “King Felix”, he’s not exactly Jason Hammel-bad either. While I like Luis Severino (5-4, 3.40) as a starter, the Yankees are 9-18 as a road favorite of -110 or higher this season.

Betting Trend – 75% backing Seattle

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Seattle

CFL – (353) EDMONTON at (354) HAMILTON  7:30 ET  ESPN3

Tonight we have another CFL total that is crumbling apart, down two digits to 52.5. Neither offense does much to get excited about with Edmonton 6th in scoring (25.3 PPG) and Hamilton 8th at 20.3 PPG. The Tiger-Cats defense is the worst in the league in surrendering 36.7 PPG, while the Eskimos in 3rd in points allowed at 22.3 PPG. Just not sure if Edmonton has the tools to take advantage of Hamilton’s defense on the road and I will call for the Ti-Cats to build on recent 15-6 UNDER record at home.

Betting Trend – 55% backing Over

Doug’s VPID TakePlay Under

 

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 141-158-8 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 93-80-3 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 227-216-11 ATS

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With so many day games, our choices were fewer for line moves in baseball, but we still got to four action plays and added a Canadien Football game also. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (179-130), to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.

MLB – (907) MILWAUKEE at (908) PITTSBURGH  7:05 ET  FSWI, RTPT (side and total)

www.vegasproinsidersdaily.com	Just like that, Pittsburgh is back in the NL Central chase after taking the first two games from division-leading Milwaukee. Those betting baseball like the Pirates chances to make it three straight and have bumped them up from -140 to -155 or higher, depending on the book. You get the feeling Zach Davies (11-4) is plain lucky to have such a record, as his ERA is 5.08. And against the Bucs, it is mind-numbing 10.29 in five starts. Though Pitt’s Gerrit Cole (7-7, 4.35) has ability, you are never quite sure if he will be sharp or be lit up and is partly why the total climbed from 8.5 to 9. I will go disagree with both line moves, finding Davies is 7-1 as a road underdog of +125 to +175 since last season (Team’s record) and 13-4 OVER this year.

Betting Trend – 67% backing Milwaukee and 57% on Over

Doug’s VPID TakeMilwaukee wins and Over

MLB – (911) ARIZONA at (912) CINCINNATI   7:10 ET  FSAZ, FSOH

Arizona busted out of their offensive slump last night in 11-2 drilling of Cincinnati. The same is not true for the Reds who have scored 26 runs in their past eight outings. Baseball bettors are fairly certain Cincy’s woes will continue versus Zack Greinke (11-4, 2.86) and dumped the total from 9.5 to 9. Historically, Greinke has been tough on the Reds, going 8-2 with a 2.21 ERA in 13 career starts. The only caveat appears to be Cincinnati starter Tim Adleman (5-7, 4.99), who does give up runs. Certainly not my favorite game on the board, yet, cannot ignore the Reds are 15-5 OVER at home vs. a NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.05 or better since 2015.

Betting Trend – 52% backing Over

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Over

MLB – (923) DETROIT at (924) KANSAS CITY  8:15 ET  FSD, FSKC

Detroit’s offense has caught fire in winning four in a row, averaging 9.0 RPG. They have surrendered one of their big bombers in J.D. Martinez through a trade with Arizona, though Royals starter Jason Hammel (4-8, 5.02) has not reminded anyone of Max Scherzer this season. With Justin Verlander (5-7, 4.66) becoming more known for being Kate Upton’s finance than for his pitching prowess, the total zoomed from 9.5 to 10. Again, I will go against the grain with the Kansas City offense slumping and having 15-6 UNDER record when playing with triple revenge.

 

Betting Trend – 60% backing Under

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Under

CFL – (351) MONTREAL at (352) OTTAWA  7:30 ET  ESPN3

Montreal is tops in scoring defense in the CFL, however, its offense is just as frightful, just in the opposite way, ranked next to last in points. Ottawa can score points at a 29 PPG clip, yet plays little defense in permitting 30.7 PPG. Oddsmakers essentially split the teams numbers in half and made the total 50.5, but summertime football bettors have driven down the total to 48.5. I agree where the total is headed with the Alouettes 20-9 UNDER as underdogs.

Betting Trend – 55% backing Over

Doug’s VPID TakePlay Under

 

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 140-154-8 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 93-80-3 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 224-214-11 ATS

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With Milwaukee having lost three in a row, the St. Louis Cardinals have climbed to within three games in the loss column of the Brewers and will try and take Game 3 of a four-game series against the Mets.

The Cardinals offense has been more consistent and their pitching has been stupendous, permitting 13 runs in winning five of seven times, which has included three shutouts. New York began the second half with a pair of wins over Colorado at home, but has since dropped three straight and again is floundering.

www.vegasproinsidersdaily.com	Keep reading to determine my choice for MLB picks for this ESPN encounter and later we will find out if I can better recent 26-18 record.

Pitching Matchup – Leake vs. deGrom

Mike Leake has pitched better than his 6-7 record indicates with a 3.14 ERA, which is well below his career norm of 3.94. A combination of poor run support and the St. Louis scoring runs after Leake has exited has kept his record down and he’s just won one of his past nine starts (Cardinals 3-6). Despite the lack of overall success, the Cards right-hander is 4-2 on the road with an excellent 2.84 ERA and opposing batters are hitting just .219 against him. Leake has not faced New York in three years and is 2-3 with 2.74 ERA.

 

CONTINUE READING

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The baseball season keeps chugging along and we continue to follow the biggest line moves and today we have five of them. One we will not be covering is the L.A. Dodgers with Clayton Kershaw rising from -300 to -315 Road Favorites! Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (176-128), to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.

MLB – (951) MILWAUKEE at (952) PITTSBURGH  7:05 ET  FSWI, RTPT

www.vegasproinsidersdaily.com		Two factors appear to be reasons why this NL Central battle total has been lifted from 8.5 to 9. One is the general ineffectiveness of Milwaukee’s Junior Guerra (1-3, 4.78 ERA), who came out of nowhere last season at 31 and was 9-3 with an ERA under three. That has not been the case during an injury-plagued campaign. The other is the return of Starling Marte from an 80-game suspension, which should pay benefits to Pittsburgh offense which was already on the upswing in their last seven outings at 4.6 RPG (4.2 is season average). Color me less convinced of this happening and I’ll take the lower score, with the Pirates 11-1 UNDER this month due to great pitching.

Betting Trend – 69% backing Over

Doug’s VPID TakePlay Under

MLB – (957) ARIZONA at (958) CINCINNATI   7:10 ET  FSAZ, FSOH (side and total)

In spite of the Arizona offense going colder then the beer at your favorite watering hole in scoring 2.5 RPG in dropping eight of nine, the D-Backs have slithered from -126 to -145. No question Robbie Ray’s (8-4, 2.97) tiny 1.34 road ERA in eight starts plays a part, as does Cincinnati having been swept in four-game series by Washington, in which they tied a club record with 13 home runs allowed. The Reds will turn to pitcher Sal Romano, who makes his third big league start. With Cincy 3-16 after scoring two or fewer runs, the Snakes get the call. The total has also fallen from 10 to 9.5 with two scuffling offenses and I will support that as well.

Betting Trend – 95% backing Arizona and 61% on Under

Doug’s VPID TakeArizona wins and Under

MLB – (959) CHIC. CUBS at (960) ATLANTA  7:35 ET  CSN-C, FSSE

There is a decided lack of faith in the Cubs tonight with John Lackey (5-9, 5.20) coming off the DL to start. The 38-year old has looked every bit his age all season and Chicago has crumbled from -130 to under -110 favorites. If Lackey pitches the same, the Cubs might be in trouble, however, the champs offense is blazing hot and against LH starters like Sean Newcombe (1-4, 4.26) tonight, they are 15-6 and averaging 6.2 RPG. Watch Chicago improve to 61-31 on the road with a money line of -100 to -150.

Betting Trend – 93% backing Chicago

Doug’s VPID TakeChicago wins

MLB – (977) WASHINGTON at (978) L.A.A. ANGELS  10:05 ET  MASN2, FSW

After a four-game blowout of Cincinnati, about the last role you might place Washington in is a growing underdog. Yet, the Nationals have blown up from -102 to +125 dogs at the Big A in Anaheim. Most baseball bettors have made a fortune wagering against Edwin Jackson (like yours truly), who take Joe Ross’s spot in the rotation with him out for the season. Jackson made his debut in the majors in 2003 and is still only 33. Jesse Chavez (5-10, 4.99) take the ball for the Halos and I just cannot back Anaheim as favorite even against Jackson. I however do like OVER 9.5 a great deal.

Betting Trend – 54% backing Los Angeles

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Washington

 

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 140-151-8 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 91-80-3 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 223-210-11 ATS

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By Marc Lawrence of Playbook.com who has 2017 Independent College Football Betting Preview

Fearsome Foursome

Roll call among FBS Independent college football teams has quietly inched up to four teams currently competing among the ranks of Independents.

While the look and feel of this autonomous affiliation might appear small in size, its impact is substantial on the outcome in the chase the College Football Playoffs.  Just ask the foes that will be taking on a super focused group of Fighting Irish, or the chancy Cougars from BYU this campaign.

Pushing The Needle

According to our well-oiled machine, since 2000 Independent teams that score 16 or fewer points in a contest are just 15-152 SU and 33-130-4 ATS in lined games – including 5-28 ATS as favorites.

On the flip side, they are 205-52 SU and 172-81-4 ATS in games in which they put more than 28 points in the scoreboard – including 68-21-2 ATS as dogs of 8 or more points.

Proceed accordingly.

Big Ugly Bowl Dogs

Each year one or two Independent teams find themselves earning bowl bids. And when they do they become attractive plays when taking more than 7 points during the post season.
That’s confirmed by the fact that Independent bowl dogs of 7.5 or more points are 13-6 ATS in these games since 1980, including 12-3 ATS when facing a foe that allows more than 12.5 PPG on the season.

Note: Team write-ups are excerpts from the 2017 PLAYBOOK Football Preview Guide magazine – the 25th Anniversary Issue, on sale at newsstands nationwide. The numbers following each team name represents the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback.

ARMY Off – *8/4   Def – 8/2 66 Lettermen
TEAM THEME: TODAY’S ARMY
Something was in the air last year when the Cadets opened the season with three consecutive wins, including a pair on the road. This from a program that was a deplorable 1-24 SU and 4-20 ATS in its previous 25 true road games. The cherry on the cake came when Army ended a 14-year losing drought to Navy, and then went on to win its first bowl game since 2010 (the Cadets’ last winning season). While QB Ahmad Bradshaw returns to run the offense, and 11 of the top 14 tacklers return to a unit that ranked No. 2 in first downs defense last season, our concern is that anything less than another bowl will considered a setback. Then again, only once in its history has Amy defeated Navy and won a bowl game the same year. They went 9-3 the following season. Unfortunately, our ‘Stat You Will Like’ below says otherwise…
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: In the three seasons following a victory over Navy, the Black Knights have gone 1-11, 3-8, and 4-7 the next year.
PLAY ON: vs. Buffalo (9/9) – *KEY
BYU Off – 6/4   Def – 6/3 59 Lettermen
TEAM THEME: MISSION ACCOMPLISHED
One of only 10 programs to earn a bowl invitation every season since 2005, the Cougars will face 13 foes in 2017, but only four that owned a winning record last season. Three of them, though, finished in the nation’s Top 25. Gone this year are two of the most dynamic offensive players in school history – all-time leading rusher Jamaal Williams and dual-threat QB Taysom Hill, both of whom accounted for over 6,700 career rushing yards. The good news is JR QB Tanner Magnum will step back into his familiar starting role (13 starts last two years). Meanwhile, rookie head coach Kalani Sitake won nine games, including a bowl, last season. He fits like a glove.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Cougars were the 2nd best team in turnovers gained (31), and the #3 team in red zone offense in 2016.
PLAY AGAINST: at Mississippi State (10/14)
NOTRE DAME Off – 8/4   Def – 7/2 39 Lettermen
www.vegasproinsidersdaily.com		TEAM THEME: WHAT THE HELL’S GOING ON HERE?
Rest assured, losing seven players to the 2016 NFL Draft – all in the first 4 rounds – took a toll on the Irish last season. Seven of eight losses came by just 8 points or less, and as improbable as it seems, the Fighting Irish are now a sister-kissing 15-15 SU in their last 30 games thanks to their 2nd worst season in 50 years in 2016. It was only the second time since 1963 the Irish finished with fewer than five victories. Brian Kelly even suffered his first loss with a Top 10 team against a non-ranked foe last season (Texas in the season opener). And it doesn’t get any easier as Kelly’s troops will face a murderer’s row schedule, taking on 11 bowl teams from 2016. All of which means Touchdown Jesus will likely need to bless new starting QB Brandon Wimbush… pronto.
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The last six times the Irish failed to deliver a winning season, they went bowling the next year all six times.
PLAY ON: vs. Navy (11/18)
UMASS Off – *8/3   Def – 9/2 51 Lettermen
TEAM THEME: HOW LOW CAN YOU GO?
After being tossed about in the turbulent FCS, then discovering significantly calmer FBS waters in 2012 as a member of the Mid-American Conference, the Minutemen were feeling giddy. A 10-40 record and two head coaches later, UMass is suddenly swimming in murky waters, terribly close to being an extinct FBS program. Along the way they managed to lose to Miami Ohio, a team that was on a 21-game losing streak. Gone are three senior offensive linemen, but that may be a good thing considering they allowed 45 sacks and were one of only five FBS teams that rushed for less than 100 YPG last season. Like Chubby Checker wanted to know… how low can you go?
STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Minutemen are 1-12 SU in one-possession games under head coach Mark Whipple.
PASS

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2017 Conference USA Football Betting Preview

July 18, 2017

By Marc Lawrence of Playbook.com has 2017 Conference USA Football Betting Preview Lineup Tweak With UAB back in the Conference USA this season, the loop will now operate with 14 teams. Each school will play every team in its division once for six games, while playing two crossover opponents from the opposite division. We Won’t Back [...]

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Betting Baseball, Yankees Flounder From Fatigue at Minnesota Monday

July 17, 2017

For those betting baseball, the question on the Yankees will be energy left. Sure New York just came off the All-Star break, but how will they react tonight in the Twin Cities? Because of Saturday’s 16-inning marathon against Boston, the Yankees were two innings shy of playing the equivalent four games in 34 hours and [...]

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A Deal Too Good to Pass Up!

July 16, 2017

Doug Upstone here of VegasProInsidersDaily.com and Saturday, the experts from the VPID Inner Circle were a combined 9-1. Plus, our Super Systems won, our In-Season Systems Killed it and the Wise Guy picks were sensational! What do you receive with VPID membership for just $3.33 a day, Best Bets from some of the finest Documented Handicapping Experts on [...]

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Weekend Line Moves and Free Picks for July 14-16

July 14, 2017

We have our weekend line moves ready to go for baseball along with some series wagering thoughts. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (173-126), to see what we are thinking. See you back here Tuesday. MLB – (955) L.A. DODGERS at (956) MIAMI  7:05 ET  SNLA, FSFL Despite [...]

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American League Teams Poised for Fast/Slow 2nd Half Starts

July 13, 2017

With the All-Star game completed, we now turn our attention to the betting baseball in the second half of the season. What teams should we be looking at to start quickly or slowly immediately? Keep reading to think about for your MLB picks. Seattle Mariners – Tough Sailing Seattle starts the second half on the [...]

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