Hope you have been following the 80-plus percent betting trends, they 16-5 of late. Being a slow day for line moves, just three contests for tonight, with one a CFL contest. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (187-144) to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.

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MLB – (903) CINCINNATI at (904) MIAMI  7:05 ET  FSOH, FSFL

This is one of these fascinating line moves to me. Miami opened at -145 over Cincinnati and has fallen to -130. The Reds have lost 11 of 13 and are starting Robert Stevenson (0-3, 8.10 ERA), who as you can see by his ERA is not fooling many hitters and since coming up last year as a rookie, he and his teammates are 3-11 when he starts a game. Miami counters (?) with 27-year journeyman Chris O’Grady (1-1, 5.40), who has taken over for Tom Koehler who was sent to the minors. Frankly, nothing to like unless Cincy being 6-19 against left-handed starters works for you.

Betting Trend – 88% backing Miami

Doug’s VPID TakeSlight lean Miami

MLB – (913) TAMPA BAY at (914) N.Y. YANKEES  7:05 ET  SUN, YES

www.vegasproinsidersdaily.com		On the surface, a Chris Archer (7-6, 3.77) vs. CC Sabathia (9-3, 3.44) pitching matchup sounds quite good, especially with both clubs in the heat of a developing pennant race in the AL East. Yet, sportsbooks have been pushed to move the total from 8.5 to 9. When I look at both offenses have been below season norms in their past seven games, Archer is 18-4 UNDER vs. AL teams scoring 4.9 or more runs a game and Sabathia is 13-4 UNDER when the total is 9 to 9.5 the last two years, not hard to figure which way I’m leaning.

Betting Trend – 56% backing Under

Doug’s VPID TakePlay Under

CFL – (371) MONTREAL at (372) WINNIPEG  8:30 ET  ESPN2

Winnipeg (2-2, 3-1 ATS) opened as a field goal home favorite and has been raised to -4 over Montreal (2-3 SU & ATS).  This matchup is a study in contrasts and similarities. The Alouettes have the league’s best scoring defense (21.8 PPG) and the worst scoring offense (20.2).The Blue Bombers have the second-best scoring offense at 32 PPG and are next to last in points allowed at 34.7 PPG. This season underdogs are 14-6 in CFL action with Winnipeg 0-6 ATS off two or more covers, I’ll side with Montreal.

Betting Trend – 51% backing Winnipeg

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Montreal

 

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 146-162-8 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 100-82-3 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 236-222-11 ATS

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When it comes to making NFL Predictions about the AFC East, figuring who is going to give New England a push is about as exciting as being a storm chaser in the desert, since there is not a whole lot going on to keep one’s interest.

The gap between the Pats and pack is exemplified in the NFL odds when looking at the present season win totals, where the difference is five games, which means the Patriots will should the AFC East wrapped up some time around Thanksgiving.  However, we are all aware Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are not interested in hanging division banner titles and instead play for the rings.

Here is a preseason preview from some of my sharp betting friends and my thoughts blended in. All odds listed are courtesy of 5Dimes.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

www.vegasproinsidersdaily.com		This is not news, but Bill Belichick remains the best coach in the NFL. When you break New England down position by position by talent, they are fourth or fifth in the NFL. When you add the coaching and teaching in the individual groups, that is what separates them…No quarterback at Tom Brady’s age has not seen a fairly noticeable drop off, can he defeat Father Time?…Look for receiver Brandin Cook and Mike Gillislee to flourish in this offense…All experts agree, New England is the team to beat in the AFC and for win total either bet OVER of pass for NFL picks.

Odds to Win the Division (as of 7/27)

New England -900

Miami +1000

Buffalo +2000

N.Y. Jets  +10000

MIAMI DOLPHINS

Adam Gase proved more than ready to take over as a head coach in the NFL and Miami improved by four wins and played with toughness, something not seen in South Florida for years…Ryan Tannehill is a far more dependable quarterback with a running game and Gase coached him to look further down the field to let plays develop…The low season win total compared to last year’s victory’s is based on still suspect defense that lacks speed and if Tannehill’s knee will hold up after avoiding surgery on ACL…All experts agree, if offensive line stays healthy to protect Tannehill and the defense makes strides at linebacker and in the secondary, the Dolphins are OVER play for win total.

 

CONTINUE READING

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Other than one National League matchup, the focus of the line moves will be on interleague play this evening. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (185-142) to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.

MLB – (955) MILWAUKEE at (956) WASHINGTON  7:o5 ET  FSWI, MASN

www.vegasproinsidersdaily.com		In this battle of NL division leaders, Milwaukee took the series opener and is garnering enough support in Game 2 to take the money line from +140 to around +115, given a take a few digits either way depending on the sportsbook. It is not obvious why this would happen as generally speaking Jimmy Nelson (8-5, 3.43 ERA) is having a slightly worse year than Gio Gonzalez (8-5, 2.83) and both pitchers have not had a lot of success against the other club. With neither team averaging more than 4 RPG in their last seven outings, I still like Gonzalez and the Nats at home.

Betting Trend – 97% backing Washington

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Washington

MLB – (973) HOUSTON at (974) PHILADELPHIA  7:07 ET  CSP

With both starting pitchers in fine form, the total has plummeted from 9 to 8 in this interleague encounter. Mike Fiers (7-4, 3.59) has a 2.70 ERA in his past three starts while Aaron Nola (7-6, 3.38) has been masterful in his last half dozen outings with 1.70 ERA. Having been blanked 5-0 last night, Philadelphia is 8-0 UNDER at home revenging a shutout loss the last two years.

Betting Trend – 58% backing Under

Doug’s VPID TakePlay Under

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MLB – (975) MIAMI at (976) TEXAS  8:05 ET  FSFL, FSSW

While the previous contest saw the total drop with two hot pitchers, this oddsmakers release is going the opposite direction on this conflict of what is arguably each team’s best starter. The total leapt from 10 to 10.5 with Jose Urena (8-4, 3.78) taking the ball for Miami and Yu Darvish (6-8, 3.38) toeing the rubber for Texas. However, digging deeper we find Darvish has a 4.27 ERA in his last seven starts and Urena has a 5.71 ERA in July. Both are very capable of pitching better immediately and Darvish is 11-0 UNDER against a team with a losing record this season.

Betting Trend – 93% backing Over

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Under

MLB – (977) CHIC. CUBS at (978) CHIC. WHITE SOX  8:08 ET  ESPN

The Cross-Town series moves from the North Side to the South Side of Chicago. Though we could discuss the biggest line move of the day is the Cubs are up 35 cents to -230, those have been numbers we have avoided because of how high they are and will instead examine the total rising from 9.5 to 10. One aspect is easy to understand with James Shields (2-2, 5.79) being ripped for a gi-normous 9.60 ERA in his three previous starts. While Jake Arrieta (9-7, 4.11) has been throwing much better, he’s allowed 16 home runs, with three coming in his last trio of outings. With Arrieta 10-2 OVER after giving up two or less earned runs in his last two outings since last year (The Cubs scoring 7.2 RPG has something to do with it), I will follow the number.

Betting Trend – 72% backing Over

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Over

 

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 145-161-8 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 98-82-3 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 234-220-11 ATS

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For NFL predictions, you won’t get many arguments that Dallas is the best team in the NFC East, other than from those from the three other teams in the division who view their squads quite differently.

In looking at the NFL odds and preseason magazines, how the four teams will finish already appears set in stone. However, this is the NFL, where anything and everything is possible. Here is our preseason preview and all odds listed are courtesy of 5Dimes.

DALLAS COWBOYS

www.vegasproinsidersdaily.com		Jerry Jones Cowboys are young and hungry coming off a 12-5 campaign (10-7 ATS). On offense, Dallas should be even better as long as Ezekiel Elliot does not miss too much time with expected suspension. Dak Prescott has a full year under his belt, has plenty of weapons and plays behind one of the best offensive lines in the league. Where the Cowboys are likely vulnerable is in the secondary, where they were 26th last season in passing yards allowed and lost four key performers. The front seven was tops in the NFL in stopping the run and may have to do even more this year for Dallas to win division.

Odds to Win the Division (as of 7/19)

Dallas +130

N.Y. Giants +250

Philadelphia +370

Washington +570

NEW YORK GIANTS

Somehow the Giants finished 11-6 (9-8 ATS) and made the postseason. Eli Manning is following in his brother’s footsteps in advancing age, now at 36, showing regression in almost every statistical category. At this age, every quarterback needs a running game, even Tom Brady, and last year New York did not have one and nobody is sure if they will even be average after finishing 29th last year in rushing. All the money upgrading the defense paid off, listed second in fewest points allowed at 17.8 per game. For NFL picks, it seems to be all on the offense to improve and with Manning, it could go either way.

Season Win Totals (as of 7/19)

Dallas  Ov9.5

N.Y. Giants Ov8.5

Philadelphia Ov8

Washington Ov7.5

 

CONTINUE READING

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It is the final week of July and we are ready to fly with baseball line moves all over the place. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (185-138), to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.

MLB – (909) PITTSBURGH at (910) SAN FRANCISCO  10:15 ET  CSBA (side and total)

For those unaware, before and after Madison Bumgarner’s (0-4, 3.57 ERA) shoulder injury, his velocity has been down a few ticks and in his two starts this month, he’s been tagged for four home runs. With this, San Francisco has fallen from a -130 favorite to -115 or less and the total has been upped from 7 to 7.5. With Jameson Taillon (6-3, 3.08) pitching so well for Pittsburgh, one has to be inclined to consider the Pirates, but I will stick with a lower score with the Bucs 15-4 UNDER this month and quite possibly Bumgarner throwing better.

Betting Trend – 59% backing Over and 88% on San Francisco

Doug’s VPID TakePlay Under, Lean Pittsburgh

MLB – (911) OAKLAND at (912) TORONTO  7:07 ET  CSCA, RSN

Most baseball experts assumed Sonny Gray (6-4, 3.66) would be traded by now from Oakland, yet it has not happened. The A’s ace is 4-1 with a 1.62 ERA and a .155 opponents’ batting average over his past five starts and sportsbooks sent Gray and his club out as -110 favorites. Not everyone betting baseball is convinced this is the right number and Toronto and been switched to a -110 home favorite. Not sure about you but Cesar Valdez (0-0, 6.05 ERA) is not doing a lot for me as Blue Jays starter, even if the Gray has 4.85 road ERA and the bullpen’s is at 5.57.

Betting Trend – 94% backing Toronto

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Oakland

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MLB – (913) L.A.A. ANGELS at (914) CLEVELAND  7:10 ET  FSW, STO

www.vegasproinsidersdaily.com	This AL total sinking from 9.5 to 9 has almost nothing to do with Angels starting pitcher Jesse Chavez (5-10, 4.88) and almost everything to do with Cleveland’s Mike Clevinger (5-3, 2.73) and the Indians pensters. Clevinger came up from Triple-A when Cory Kluber was injured in May and has been so effective he’s now a permanent part of the rotation and in his last half dozen outings, opposing teams are batting .196 against him, striking out 9.5 times per nine innings. With the Halos averaging only 3.9 RPG on the road and the Tribe 11-0 UNDER having won four of their last five contests, the new total should be good.

Betting Trend – 74% backing Under

Doug’s VPID TakeLean Under

MLB – (919) BOSTON at (920) SEATTLE  10:10 ET  NESN, RTNW

Drew Pomeranz (10-4, 3.51) is throwing like the pitcher Boston expected him to be coming over from San Diego and he and Red Sox were made -110 faves. Those betting baseball are less convinced and have flipped Felix Hernandez (5-4, 3.88) and Seattle to -115 choice. Hernandez has an ERA of 1.00 in his past three starts, but Pomeranz is 9-2 as an underdog of +100 to +150 the last two seasons. (Team’s Record) Personally, I like the Under 8.5 and will just have a very slight lean with the BoSox.

Betting Trend – 92% backing Seattle

Doug’s VPID TakeSlight lean Boston

 

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 144-160-8 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 95-82-3 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 231-218-11 ATS

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Weekend Line Moves and Free Picks for July 21-23

July 21, 2017

It’s the weekend, so our line moves report will focus on baseball, both for games and series wagering. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (181-137), to see what we are thinking. See you back here Tuesday. MLB – (925) BOSTON at (926) L.A.A. ANGELS  10:05 ET  NESN, FSW [...]

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Not a VPID Inner Circle Member Yet? What are You Waiting For!

July 21, 2017

Doug Upstone here of VegasProInsidersDaily.com and the Winning Continues for VPID Inner Circle members! Besides great Winning Picks our Super Systems are rolling, our In-Season Systems Killed it and the Wise Guy picks are sensational! What do you receive with VPID membership for just $3.33 a day, Best Bets from some of the finest Documented Handicapping Experts on the planet, like Kyle Hunter, Sean [...]

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Compelling Line Moves and Free Picks for July 20th

July 20, 2017

With a smaller MLB schedule and nearly half of the games played during the day, we found three contests for line moves tonight and come right back with another CFL matchup. We were going to drop in a WNBA encounter in, but the line movement had to do with an injury, not bettors really liking [...]

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Important Line Moves and Free Picks for July 19th

July 19, 2017

With so many day games, our choices were fewer for line moves in baseball, but we still got to four action plays and added a Canadien Football game also. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (179-130), to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow. MLB [...]

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The St. Louis Cardinals are Upset Winner in the Big Apple on ESPN

July 19, 2017

With Milwaukee having lost three in a row, the St. Louis Cardinals have climbed to within three games in the loss column of the Brewers and will try and take Game 3 of a four-game series against the Mets. The Cardinals offense has been more consistent and their pitching has been stupendous, permitting 13 runs [...]

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